Various factors are coming into play regarding the Israeli war with the "Hamas" movement. The longer the war lasts, the greater the risk of its expansion and the higher the dangers of opening new fronts. "Hamas" shows readiness to confront any large-scale ground invasion, while the focus is being placed on monitoring the actions of major active powers, notably the United States and Russia.
Israel has mobilized the greatest possible support for its war on Gaza, strongly backed by Washington and other Western countries, amidst discussions about supplying it with advanced missiles to strike "Hamas" infrastructure. The Lebanese government is striving to keep the flames of war away from the country, as the situation cannot withstand any new confrontation or devastating war. Diplomatic efforts are concentrated in decision-making capitals, with both Paris and Washington taking it upon themselves to attempt to cool southern tensions and curb any situations that could lead to war.
In Moscow, Lebanese Ambassador Shawki Bounassar has intensified his activities, meeting several high-ranking Russian officials who communicated positive messages regarding efforts to maintain Lebanon's security and stability and to provide all necessary support to overcome this difficult phase, aiming to calm the situation and prevent the spread of war fires to the south and all Lebanese regions.
This Russian concern for Lebanon will not evolve into a Russian mediation between Lebanon and Israel for several reasons, primarily the tense Russian-Israeli relations currently at a near-rupture and President Vladimir Putin's displeasure with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to the latter's position on the Ukraine war. Putin's discontent stems from his support for Israel to the fullest extent, allowing its planes to carry out strikes in Syria against Syrian, Iranian, and "Hezbollah" positions without objection to any Israeli aircraft. However, when the Ukraine war broke out, Netanyahu did not reach out to his friend Putin during the entire preceding period and instead took a position alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
If Moscow is unlikely to engage in any mediation between Israel and "Hezbollah," which is fighting alongside the Russians, Syrians, and Iranians in Syria due to the severed Russian-Israeli communication, diplomatic sources familiar with the Russian stance revealed to "Nidaa Al-Watan" that there has been a Russian warning to Lebanese officials to which they have been privy, reflecting Moscow's concern for Lebanon.
This warning did not come from the Russian Foreign Ministry but from the Russian Ministry of Defense, which possesses military and intelligence reports and data. The reports indicate that if "Hezbollah" decides to open a war on the southern front, Israel will adopt a scorched earth policy and would devastate Lebanon, with destruction not limited to "Hezbollah's" areas of influence. Israel will not distinguish between "Hezbollah" and the Lebanese state, and even if it does not undertake a comprehensive ground operation in the south, it is determined to achieve the greatest possible destruction through aerial bombardment that could revert Lebanon to the Stone Age. Lebanon cannot withstand this type of systematic destruction that Israel has been implementing in Gaza.
Proponents close to the Russians believe that "Hezbollah" is aware of this type of imminent danger to itself and to Lebanon, understanding the destructive capability of Tel Aviv. Up to this point, the Russian administration sees no interest in initiating a war in southern Lebanon or entering an unpredictable conflict. The Russian concerns about Lebanon do not stem from any actions "Hezbollah" might take, but there is a Russian hint and concern that Iran might ask "Hezbollah" to open a southern Lebanese front, which would embroil "the party" and Lebanon in a comprehensive war with unpredictable outcomes.
In light of all these realities, it remains essential for Lebanese officials and "Hezbollah" to fully comprehend the Western and Russian warnings and the serious concerns for the country, to avoid a war that would not serve anyone's interests.
