Despite limiting the competition for the candidate to succeed former Iraqi Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi to 3 candidates out of 7, the most likely candidate based on expectations is former Parliament Speaker and current MP from the "Azm" Alliance, Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani. The inability of Sunni political blocs to agree on a single candidate for the Parliament Chair, which is constitutionally allocated to the Sunni Arabs, has resulted in them losing their direction, thus allowing other political forces — particularly the Shiite "Coordination Framework" — to influence the selection in favor of their preferred candidate rather than one mutually agreed upon by the Sunnis.
The Shiite "Coordination Framework" holds a comfortable parliamentary majority capable of passing any candidate from other components (Sunni and Kurdish), but many factions within the "Coordination Framework" are hesitant to pursue this option, which entails imposing a will contrary to the political customs established by Iraqi political forces since 2003 — namely, consensus and subsequently ethnic and sectarian quotas. The position of Parliament Speaker faced a setback following the dismissal of Al-Halbousi, who leads the largest Sunni party currently, the "Taqaddum" party, after the Federal Court issued a conclusive ruling last month terminating his membership in parliament, leading to his ousting from the chairmanship.
Due to deep-rooted disagreements among Sunni factions, the vacancy in the Speaker's position has failed to unite the Sunni blocs around a mutually agreed solution before a Speaker is imposed that is acceptable to some but disagreed upon by others. Political conflicts and rivalries have erupted among the prominent leaders of the Sunni component, whether through electoral conferences they attend to support their candidates for local council memberships, or via tweets that have gone beyond all decency standards.
While the Kurds are remaining neutral regarding the selection of a replacement for Al-Halbousi, waiting for a specific candidate to support without preconditions, the Shiite component — represented by the "Coordination Framework" forces — has clearly shown support for a specific candidate, Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, belonging to the "Azm" bloc led by Muthana Al-Samarrai. According to a prominent Sunni politician who spoke to "Asharq Al-Awsat," requesting anonymity, "the Sunni Arabs have completely lost their direction; not only regarding the lack of consensus among themselves, but also due to attempts by some to undermine the other, whether through publicly announced activities using all means to weaken positions, or by approaching other forces, especially the Shiite 'Coordination Framework,' which possesses the majority capable of passing any candidate they desire."
Here, according to the Sunni politician, "Al-Mashhadani appears to be an acceptable candidate (to the Coordination Framework), but only to a certain extent, or any other candidate who may offer what the Shiite forces want to see from him in order to pass him in the Wednesday session dedicated solely to electing the Parliament Speaker." He believes that "while the disagreements within the 'Coordination Framework' have not been resolved, the scheduling of an exceptional session close to the provincial council elections indicates that there are two possibilities behind this; either there is an undisclosed agreement within the 'Coordination Framework' on an acceptable candidate from 'Azm,' which is Al-Mashhadani; or perhaps Muthana Al-Samarrai himself, the leader of 'Azm,' in case Al-Mashhadani withdraws at the last moment and Al-Samarrai puts himself forward for nomination, following a scenario of which some threads have leaked."
The source added that "if Al-Mashhadani is presented alongside other prominent Sunni candidates, namely Shalaan Al-Kareem from the 'Taqaddum' party led by Al-Halbousi, and Salem Al-Essawi, the candidate from the 'Sovereignty' party headed by Khamis Al-Khanjar, Al-Mashhadani's chances will significantly weaken; because the only assured support he has within the 'Coordination Framework' comes from the 'State of Law' bloc led by Nouri Al-Maliki. However, if he withdraws and Al-Samarrai enters the competition, the tables could turn in favor of Al-Samarrai against the candidates from 'Taqaddum' and 'Sovereignty.'"
As for the other possibility, according to the view of the Sunni politician, it is that "the Wednesday session might merely be a formality due to the insistence of some Sunni forces to resolve the Council's presidency for the Sunnis, even without a consensus among themselves, and not allowing it to remain in the hands of the first deputy parliament speaker, Mohsen Al-Mandlawy, for the upcoming months, which would mean depriving the Sunnis of any sovereign position; as Al-Mandlawy is also, in the end, a Shiite."
