China's population has declined for the second consecutive year in 2023, as falling birth rates and a wave of deaths from COVID-19, following the end of strict lockdowns, have accelerated a contraction that will have deep, long-term implications for economic growth potential. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total population in China decreased by 2.08 million people, or 0.15%, to 1.409 billion in 2023. This decline is larger than the population drop of 850,000 in 2022, which marked the first recorded decrease since 1961 during the Great Famine under Mao Zedong.
China experienced a significant surge in coronavirus cases nationwide early last year after three years of strict monitoring and quarantine measures that largely kept the virus under control until authorities abruptly lifted restrictions in December 2022. Total deaths last year rose by 6.6% to 11.1 million, with the death rate reaching its highest level since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution. The number of newborns fell by 5.7% to 9.02 million, recording a historically low birth rate of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 births in 2022.
The birth rate in the country has been declining for decades due to the one-child policy implemented from 1980 to 2015 and rapid urbanization during that period. Similar to previous economic booms experienced by Japan and South Korea, a significant number of people have moved from rural farms in China to cities where having children is more expensive. Contributing to the decreased desire to have children in 2023 are rising youth unemployment rates to record levels, falling wages for many administrative employees, and worsening crises in the real estate sector, where more than two-thirds of household wealth is saved.
The new data intensify concerns that the growth prospects of the world's second-largest economy are dimming due to a declining number of workers and consumers, while rising costs for elderly care and pension benefits add further pressure on debt-laden local governments. India surpassed China as the world's most populous country last year, according to United Nations estimates, sparking further debate about the merits of relocating some supply chains based in China to other markets, especially with escalating geopolitical tensions between China and the United States. In the long term, UN experts expect China's population to shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than three times the decline predicted in their previous 2019 forecasts.
