Political and diplomatic efforts, including those from the quintet, are not limited to the holiday period but extend far beyond that. Most Arab and Western diplomats insist on highlighting the difficulty of the internal situation, especially concerning the presidential elections, with a near consensus on the impossibility of electing a president before the war in Gaza and the South ceases. At the very least, a truce must be established that could allow for the passage of the electoral process if there is internal consensus and, most importantly, when the international and regional settlement moment arrives under favorable circumstances, at which point a president can be elected similar to past occasions.
Active diplomatic entities do not hide that the visit of Wafiq Safa, head of the liaison and coordination unit in Hezbollah, to the United Arab Emirates was a minor visit focused on the issue of detainees, but the underlying signals indicate a restructuring of the entire local, regional, Arab, and international situation, wherein Lebanon will have a significant share. This implies that the visit of one of the party's prominent leaders to Abu Dhabi left noteworthy signals and indicators since the UAE has close ties with Iran, and there are also diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh. In clearer terms, all analyses and assessments have pointed to potential positives that could be mobilized internally, especially at this phase where conditions are conducive to initiating solutions, but this requires a long time amid the impossibility of reaching a truce and halting the war due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's obstinacy, as revealed by several Arab and Western sources. The Americans have started to express annoyance towards Netanyahu, indicating that the war will not cease at this stage, although the Israeli Prime Minister is leveraging the support of war leaders around him to align public opinion and seeks to achieve results, even if they are illusory under such conditions.
Naturally, Lebanon finds itself in a position of anticipation regarding what the next few weeks will bring, as a series of expectations may accompany a truce if U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's efforts in the region succeed. As conveyed by a Gulf ambassador, he expressed his outrage at Netanyahu's stubbornness after he rejected a truce that was nearly achieved, leading to ongoing American-French efforts to prevent a full-scale war.
In another sphere, diplomatic efforts aimed at monitoring and addressing the presidential situation have not ceased, although those undertaking these steps admit that there are numerous complexities and difficulties. However, there is a need to reach a unified and comprehensive vision while awaiting the final response to the initiative from the "National Moderation Bloc" from some internal parties. Some claim that Hezbollah has not provided its final answer but is strategically mobilizing and engaged in a war with Israel, thus remaining watchful.
Moreover, Speaker of the House Nabih Berri is negotiating through various critical points on behalf of the party, whether regarding Resolution 1701 or the presidential entitlement. Therefore, the "National Moderation Bloc" continues in its role, presence, and efforts, as confirmed by one of its deputies, who stated: "We are not seeking to score points against any party or achieve gains or positions, but we fully understand that what we are doing is a genuine and ongoing initiative. There is agreement and harmony among all members of the bloc on task distribution and roles, with appreciation and respect for all deputies from Akkar and the North and at the parliamentary level generally, for we are fully aware of the enthusiasm among the quintet for this initiative, particularly from Berri and many others. Thus, after the holiday period, the moderation bloc will resume its activities and efforts, which will have repercussions on the quintet following the return of its ambassadors from the holiday break."
Ultimately, observers maintain that the situation in the South is concerning just like in Gaza and the region, and escalation is contingent on any diplomatic stagnation, reaching the point where the Israeli Prime Minister has decided on war and is escalating without yielding to what the U.S. Secretary of State has conveyed to him, while many are questioning the fate of the South, the displaced, and all that is occurring.