Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz's statements regarding the dwindling time to reach a diplomatic solution in southern Lebanon have raised significant concerns about the possibility of border clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army escalating into a full-blown confrontation and a destructive war between the two sides. This has led to questions about the background of these statements at a time when European and American diplomatic efforts are intensifying to prevent the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. Katz made these comments during his meeting with French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné in Tel Aviv, as reported by the Associated Press. Katz told his French counterpart that "Israel will take military action to return citizens who have been evacuated from their homes to its northern border area if a diplomatic solution to end the violence is not reached," according to a statement from the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Meanwhile, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority stated that the meeting between the two ministers was "tense," indicating that Séjourné conveyed a direct message from French President Emmanuel Macron, that his country would play a "central role" in any future political solution in Lebanon. Additionally, after informing the French minister that Israel might have to undertake military action if diplomatic efforts fail, he responded by saying that "if a war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, France will be forced to carry out military action in Lebanon to rescue about 20,000 French citizens living there."
### Intensive International Efforts
This meeting took place within the framework of a Middle Eastern tour initiated by the French Foreign Minister on Saturday, ending on Tuesday, following a quick visit to Lebanon, focusing on the political prospects for the post-war phase in Gaza. The French minister's tour coincides with efforts from both Britain and the United States to contain the conflict and its repercussions in the Middle East, with British Foreign Minister David Cameron visiting Beirut and meeting with Lebanese officials to discuss ways to calm tensions and prevent escalation. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also visiting the Middle East for the fifth time since October 7, as part of efforts to establish a second ceasefire in Gaza, which is currently being negotiated through international mediation. The United States is intensifying its diplomatic efforts in multiple directions, with U.S. Special Envoy for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein in Israel discussing ways to ease tensions between Lebanon and Israel. Axios reported that the United States and four of its European allies hope to announce a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah in the coming weeks to de-escalate tensions and restore calm along the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to Israeli officials and a source familiar with the matter. Israeli Channel 12 reported on Monday that there are "positive signs" paving the way for a possibility to end the tension between the Lebanese Hezbollah group and Israel, with Hochstein carrying "signals about a potential diplomatic solution," that includes Hezbollah withdrawing from the border. According to the report, senior Israeli officials feel optimistic about a potential agreement for the first time since the war began nearly five months ago.
### Pressure for a Solution?
The discrepancy between the statements from the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the diplomatic atmosphere stemming from the visits of international envoys to the Middle East, especially in the efforts being made to calm tensions between Lebanon and Israel, has raised questions about the factors that prompted the Israeli minister to deliver this warning to his French counterpart, and whether it is based on a decision to escalate or merely an increase in the level of threat to apply pressure. In this context, Lebanese political analyst Munir al-Rabii points out that the Israeli Foreign Ministry's position "is not new," noting that "many Israeli officials have said that," placing these statements within the framework of "pressure on Lebanon and the international community." Al-Rabii rules out the possibility of an Israeli escalation "because negotiations are still ongoing and making progress." This analysis is in agreement with what Lebanese political writer Ghassan Jawad believes, who is aware of Hezbollah's political atmosphere, viewing the reality of the Israeli army after four months of battle in Gaza and the political situation within Israel, along with how the American administration is dealing with the Lebanese file, as making significant military action unlikely, particularly as the political path remains open and ongoing. He suggests that the Israeli statements are "part of this negotiation and accompanying pressure," without ruling out the possibility of a broader confrontation if diplomatic efforts fail, "the scale and magnitude of which are unknown to anyone."
From Hezbollah's perspective, Jawad believes the likelihood sits at 50-50, as it "leaves space for the political path, alongside its military readiness for all possibilities as it mobilizes in the south as if war is about to occur."
### A Possible Scenario
The cautious estimates from the Lebanese side are matched by a similar caution on the Israeli side, where two Israeli analysts have expressed their belief that "an open war with Lebanon remains a likely possibility if Hezbollah does not withdraw its forces to the south of the Litani River." Political analyst Yonatan Ben Menachem stated, "The ball is in the Lebanese court," adding in his statements to the "Free" website that Israel "does not want war and did not initiate it in the first place." He clarified that his country "will conduct a wide operation to remove Hezbollah's forces to the south of the Litani River, unless the crisis ends with a political resolution." He added: "American mediator Amos Hochstein was in Israel and met with Israeli leaders, proposing a solution to the problem, and is currently in Lebanon awaiting Hezbollah's response." The analyst believes that if Hochstein's efforts do not succeed diplomatically, "the solution will be military, and the war could destroy all of Lebanon's infrastructure."
All of this will depend on developments in Gaza, according to al-Rabii, who affirms in his conversation with the "Free" that "escalation will automatically depend on the Lebanon border situation with a ceasefire or an agreement on a truce in Gaza." Following this, discussions will begin about three phases, according to al-Rabii, the first of which involves stopping military operations and arranging the situation on the border to allow the return of residents from both sides. The second phase comprises discussions regarding the withdrawal of Hezbollah's heavy weapons from the south of the Litani River, not the withdrawal of the party itself, emphasizing "discussing precision and long-range missiles and drones and stopping military activities in the south, which would restore the balance that existed before the outbreak of confrontations." The third phase relates to border demarcation negotiations, "which require a political settlement in Lebanon that reconstitutes the authority that will conclude the border agreement."
### Diplomacy "Has Not Yet Succeeded"
On the ground, border clashes and mutual shelling between both parties have persisted since October 7, with their intensity fluctuating based on field realities, the balance of power, and the rules of engagement between the two sides. In this context, Israeli political analyst Yoav Stern noted that "thus far, diplomacy has failed to reach a positive outcome." In his statements to the "Free" website, Stern said: "We understand from the declarations that Israel is preparing for a scenario of total wide-scale war." He continued, "The Foreign Minister hints at open warfare, which means intensive attack on Hezbollah with air and artillery strikes, and the operation may include a ground invasion of Lebanon... the confrontation could be very large and extensive." He further elaborated that this scenario threatens "significant casualties in lives and property, including civilians, as it is impossible to separate civilian and military installations regarding Hezbollah, as is the case in Gaza," adding that "the results of this war will be painful for Lebanon."
Stern discussed "pressures" stemming from the issue of evacuees from their homes in Israel on the government, particularly as they refuse to return until violence ceases. Stern noted that "the evacuation of homes in northern border towns came as a result of fears of attacks from Lebanon similar to the attacks by Hamas on October 7, causing pressure on the government, especially with the formation of a security belt within Israeli territory, suggesting that Hezbollah has forced Israel into this evacuation." Stern emphasized that the government is looking for ways to eliminate Hezbollah's threats and reach an equation that enables Israeli citizens to return to their homes, even if this costs a new war "which could have severe consequences."
Conversely, Jawad emphasizes that the political path "still possesses strong elements of success, especially since the American side is serious in its rejection of any broad confrontation between Lebanon and Israel at this time." He adds: "Hochstein was in Tel Aviv yesterday, and there are thoughts that he is coming to Lebanon. Will this negotiation reach a result alongside discussions of a forthcoming truce in Gaza, preventing expansion of the confrontation? So far, its prospects are high, and its elements are strong, but its complications are also significant."
### Will Hezbollah Retreat?
Hezbollah's retreat to the north of the Litani River is a primary Israeli demand in any anticipated calm, along with being a prerequisite for the return of Israeli evacuees to border towns and northern areas. The Litani River runs in southern Lebanon parallel to the Israeli-Lebanese border, about 30 kilometers north of the border. Hezbollah's withdrawal to the north of the river was one of the conditions for the truce that halted the July 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, cemented by UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, both al-Rabii and Jawad rule out the possibility of Hezbollah retreating all its military forces to the north of the Litani River, which could represent a sticking point in ongoing negotiations to establish a diplomatic solution to the existing border tension. In this context, Jawad questions: If Hezbollah retreats, will the Israeli army also retreat in parallel? He continues, "That's a significant question, but the current situation is very sensitive and on the verge of failure and success at the same time," noting that today's negotiations are with the Lebanese state regarding arrangements after the war in Gaza, rather than directly with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah insists on continuing its rocket attacks across the border as part of what it describes as "support for Gaza and the steadfastness of Hamas," applying pressure on the Israeli army, demanding a cessation of hostilities in Gaza as a condition for ending border tensions with Israel. This commitment has already been made by the militia of the Iraqi Hezbollah brigades since the war in Gaza began, although it retracted it, announcing a freeze on military operations against American forces following an attack that resulted in the deaths of three American soldiers and injuries to dozens at the Jordanian-Syrian border, which prompted a severe American response. This development raises questions about the possibility of Lebanese Hezbollah adopting the same approach, regarding the potential for withdrawing from its military operations regardless of the outcome of the war in Gaza. Both al-Rabii and Jawad rule out this option due to "the differing circumstances governing the operations of the two organizations." Jawad believes that the circumstances of Hezbollah in Lebanon differ from those of the Iraqi Hezbollah brigades, which are subject to considerations about suspending their operations associated with the precarious situation of the government in Iraq, which represents Iran's allies, "thus their decision to alleviate pressure on the Iraqi government."
However, Hezbollah's conditions in Lebanon are different and it is not compelled to do so, especially since another factor plays a role regarding Hezbollah's attacks, according to Jawad, "which is that Lebanon has land occupied by Israel, such as the Shebaa Farms, and within the arrangements anticipated in any upcoming solution, the expectation is for the Israeli side to withdraw from contested areas, which secures gains for Lebanon in this context." Nonetheless, al-Rabii points out that it is essential to consider that Hezbollah has recently "restricted its operations to the Shebaa Farms and is no longer attacking all Israeli positions along the Lebanese border, considering the Shebaa Farms as Lebanese occupied land, which it wants to negotiate to retrieve. This indicates that negotiations are underway." He concludes: "Despite the threats and warnings, the time for a diplomatic solution has not yet ended, and I do not believe there is any solution to this issue other than a diplomatic one."
