Jean-Yves Le Drian, the former French Foreign Minister and personal representative of President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon, is preparing to resume his mission to assist the Lebanese in electing a president to fill the vacant position at the head of state institutions. In this context, "Asharq Al-Awsat" learned from well-informed sources in Paris that Le Drian will head to Cairo on Saturday, where he will have meetings with Egyptian officials following the Lebanese file on Sunday. This will be the first step in an effort to relaunch the activities of the regional-international quintet after a period of interruption due to the war in Gaza and the international attention focused on its developments and the pursuit of a ceasefire that appears to be stalled as of today.
Le Drian intends to conduct a series of consultations, which come after the activities carried out by the quintet in Lebanon, involving ambassadors from the concerned countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, the United States, and Qatar). This includes meetings at the Saudi ambassador's residence in Beirut, followed by discussions with the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri at his headquarters, in addition to bilateral communications with active parties. The aforementioned sources added that the French envoy could benefit from the conclusions reached by the committee to propose new ideas or initiatives that could help move the presidential file out of the deadlock it has faced since the end of October 2022, with the departure of former President Michel Aoun at the end of his term.
Le Drian’s efforts precede a quintet meeting at the level of political directors from the foreign ministries of the five countries, with currently no desire for a meeting at the ministerial level, contrary to reports circulating in Lebanese media in recent days. The meeting's location has not been confirmed yet, but it is proposed to be hosted either in Cairo or Riyadh. After the meeting, Le Drian will travel to Beirut, speaking on behalf of the group and conveying the ideas and convictions reached.
According to the committee’s mandate, their aim is not to impose a candidate's name on Lebanese MPs, as this task is not within their jurisdiction, nor to push for a third or fourth candidate. Instead, they aim to assist and encourage the Lebanese to elect a candidate who meets the necessary qualifications, the most important of which is having a vision to pull Lebanon out of its multifaceted crises and the ability to communicate and dialogue with all parties, in addition to having integrity.
Until now, the political alignments and tensions between blocs, as noted by these sources, do not seem to facilitate the quintet's mission. The prevailing belief is that reaching institutional solutions in Lebanon is contingent on, as a prerequisite, reducing the escalation on Lebanon's southern front, which in turn is dependent on developments in the Gaza war. Furthermore, the news circulated in recent hours about reaching interim solutions between Lebanon and Israel, through reviving the quadripartite contact committee established by the United States, France, Lebanon, and Israel, which successfully ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 1996, seems premature. The reason is that the expected positive developments in Lebanon will not materialize as long as the Gaza war is at its peak.
The fiery statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's meetings in Tel Aviv, along with his affirmation of the inevitable assault on the city of Rafah, make any discussion about a ceasefire or halt in hostilities seem misplaced. Israel has rejected Hamas's remarks and conditions to reach a ceasefire amid pressure from hardliners within the Israeli government, who see any agreement as a reward for Hamas.
Will Le Drian succeed in making a breakthrough in his new tour, marking his fifth visit to Lebanon? This question remains open, and so far, it does not appear that he has made any significant progress in the mission assigned to him by President Macron last June. It is evident that matters have become more complex since last fall, with the Gaza war and its repercussions on the Lebanese situation.
