In what is considered to be Russia's greatest symbolic victory following the failed counteroffensive launched by Kyiv last summer, Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from their last positions near the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian army announced on Saturday that it had withdrawn from the eastern city of Avdiivka, with Ukrainian regional commander General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stating on Telegram late Friday that "according to the order we received, we have withdrawn from Avdiivka to pre-prepared positions."
However, the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka paves the way for the largest Russian advance since May 2023, when Moscow seized the city of Bakhmut, according to a social media post by the new commander of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Syrskyi. Let us explore the symbolic and strategic value of this city.
Avdiivka holds significant symbolic and strategic value for both sides; it briefly fell into the hands of Moscow-backed separatists in 2014, before returning to Ukrainian control, in addition to its proximity to Donetsk, which has been a stronghold for pro-Russian forces for the past ten years. Control of Avdiivka remains a crucial step in Russia's goal to ensure complete control over the two regions that comprise the industrial Donbas area, Donetsk and Luhansk, and could provide President Vladimir Putin with a battlefield victory as he seeks reelection next month.
Moscow hopes that controlling the industrial city, which was previously known for its sprawling coke plant, will secure Donetsk from regular Ukrainian shelling, some of which had originated from the city. Seizing it grants Russia full control over the surrounding area.
The mayor of Avdiivka, Vitaly Barabash, stated that 923 civilians remain in the city, down from a pre-war population of around 32,000, most of whom are elderly residents who refused to leave their homes even as fighting intensified in recent months, with no possibility for their evacuation, according to The Guardian.
The Kremlin has prioritized control over Avdiivka in a year when neither side was expected to achieve significant strategic gains on the battlefield, according to a Bloomberg report. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky, previously commented on the city's importance, stating, "Avdiivka is important for them to control the space around Donetsk; it allows them to build logistical corridors to supply a large area of the front."
Podolyak added earlier this month, "It's not about symbolism; it's about the operational importance of a certain area." Several analysts have likened the situation in Avdiivka to the fierce fighting that took place during Ukrainian forces' defense of Bakhmut last year, where Ukrainian troops incurred heavy losses before the city fell into Russian hands.
