It is certain that Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri is the most skillful in bringing his respondents from Lebanese and non-Lebanese factions regarding presidential initiatives to the sea and returning them thirsty. This has been demonstrated in his meetings with French officials, Qatari officials, even ambassadors from the Quintet, and national moderation deputies, who left their first meeting with him with a positive impression, believing that the president was just a few meters away, only to be surprised days later by a completely opposite impression that awoke them from their dreams, or rather from their illusions that almost convinced the Lebanese that the presidency would emerge under the auspices of MP Walid Baarini, as mentioned in "A Call of the Nation."
In reality, it is akin to quicksand that can engulf anyone who approaches or steps on it, especially if they believe that separating the Gaza file, and consequently the south, from the presidential file is possible or happening. Theoretically, the separation exists, and Hezbollah seeks to prove, in both a legitimate and political way, that it is not attached to the umbilical cord linking the blue line to the Baabda Palace; this is what it attempted with former President Michel Aoun. However, reality leads to the opposite, as indicated by the following:
- There is no serious indication so far of a genuine desire from the U.S. administration to resolve this file, at least as seen by the Shiite duo. Even the priorities of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, tasked with managing the entire Lebanese file, as communicated to some official bodies, do not extend beyond a ceasefire in the south to return settlers to their homes in northern Israel. Aside from the situation in the south, Hochstein showed no interest in the internal Lebanese file. The Shiite duo perceives this as a delay of the presidential file by the Americans, as their focus is on the situation in Gaza and the southern borders of Lebanon, indicating that the separation intended to facilitate the presidency is illusory.
- The positions of Lebanese forces remain unchanged since before the Gaza events: despite all the enticing attempts presented to the Shiite duo, they are unwilling to relinquish the candidacy of the "Marada Movement" leader, Suleiman Franjieh. The Christian forces have not retreated from their rejection of this candidacy, and each side is betting on events to work in their favor and urge others to move forward. Therefore, the effort to neutralize the presidency from the south is an exaggeration in assessments that is difficult to overcome.
Consequently, it can be said that the ongoing negotiation movement, particularly from the increasingly enthusiastic Quintet driven by Qatari interests, resembles playing in stoppage time, as Lebanese officials pass the "billiard" balls to divert attention from the obstructionist party, rather than scoring a goal, since achieving a breakthrough faces many difficulties, the most notable being:
- Hezbollah is not inclined to request Franjieh’s withdrawal, as it withdrew the presidential spoon from its mouth in 2015 when Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, and Nabih Berri decided to proceed with his candidacy. Additionally, the leader of the Marada is convinced that when the war in Gaza settles, and serious discussions about the next day’s elements begin, the presidency will be on Hezbollah’s side, not vice versa. This is why he is steadfast in his candidacy, regardless of what might be presented to him as offers and temptations. In fact, there are multiple Western and Arab entities that approached the duo from both wings, proposing a third candidate; in each instance, the matter was referred back to Franjieh, in hopes of convincing him if possible, and every time the response was decisive from the Zgharta figure: "I have 51 votes in my pocket," which not only represent deputies but also stable entities, specifically Hezbollah, and there is no possibility of withdrawal.
- Any shift by Hezbollah from the Franjieh square to that of a third candidate would be considered a loss that it refuses to incur at this precise and quickly evolving moment, making this choice resolved for the "party": no candidate but Franjieh.
- Despite all the sweet talk that Berri expresses to those inquiring about his opinion on third-party nominations, which occasionally raises concerns in Franjieh's mind, prompting him recently to discuss with the Speaker regarding the possibility of a covert presidential arrangement that would undermine his nomination, the duo insists: Berri will not retract his support for the Marada leader unless it is through a tripartite coordination involving himself, the party, and Franjieh. This matter is not on the table at present. In fact, those familiar with Berri confirm that his policy of open doors by no means indicates readiness to negotiate any settlement offered to him. There is only one potential agreement that Berri might weave with an external entity, which is Washington alone, of course in coordination with the party. It is likely that Berri will be the one to cook the presidency sooner or later. However, for now, the ongoing movement remains a mere bubble that quickly evaporates according to "A Call of the Nation."
Thus, it can be concluded that the presidency remains at a standstill, with no serious discussion in its maze until after the war in Gaza ends, related to southern Lebanon, no matter how flexible or accommodating Berri appears, or how much he tells his envoys that there is no objection to this name, nor is there a veto on that one. Therefore, the relationship between Bassil and the party remains severed because reviving it would lead to discussions about a third candidate. As for the timing of exiting the tunnel, it remains a hidden card as long as the sound of battles is the loudest. Consequently, no extraordinary expectation should be placed on the Quintet's initiative and its anticipated round.
