Israeli military analyst Yossi Yehoshua published a report in the newspaper "Yedioth Ahronoth," addressing the recent escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv and the erosion of Israeli deterrence since October 7, 2023. In the report titled "New Balance of Terror Between Iran and Israel," the analyst noted that for many years, Iran did not directly attack Israel. However, since October 7, 2023, deterrence has eroded, and Tehran has begun to create a new system.
Yehoshua stated, "The next test will be when the possibility of eliminating another Iranian general presents itself, and the matter may be seriously considered, but it is doubtful it will be executed." He added, "This already constitutes a violation of deterrence, which Israel needs to restore."
The military analyst explained that the recent escalation has created a new balance of terror between Iran and Israel, based on the dramatic erosion of Israeli deterrence since October 7. He mentioned that over the years, Iran, led by the former commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, established what is described as a "ring of fire" around Israel, creating a maneuvering space towards acquiring a nuclear bomb.
He continued, "But all of this ended a week ago, on that dramatic night when at least 350 lethal components were launched at Israel, including more than 110 ballistic missiles, targeting no less than the strategic Negev Air Base, a crucial element in maintaining Israeli air superiority in the region."
The analyst added that the Iranian move put Israel in front of a new agenda after they effectively decided in Iran to end the era described as the battle between wars, meaning the deterrence of Israel from carrying out operations against Iranian proxies in Syrian and Lebanese territories.
In his report, he stated, "Apart from the consequences of October 7, the Iranians were well aware of the rift that formed between Israel and its most important ally, the United States. Therefore, we can claim that we succeeded in forming an international defensive alliance and responded in a way that embarrassed the Iranians without being dragged into war, in coordination with Washington, which did everything it could to clarify that it was not a partner in the attack."
He continued, "The next test will arise when the possibility of eliminating an Iranian general on Syrian territory or elsewhere appears... This matter will likely be considered seriously, and it is doubtful that it will be executed. This already causes damage to Israeli deterrence that Tel Aviv will need to restore."
The military analyst pointed out that the recent developments following the Iranian attack sparked a debate in Israel about the efficacy of the decision to assassinate Mohammad Reza Zahdi, which turned out to be a mistake as the intelligence underestimated the severity of the Iranian response, which nearly plunged Israel into a complicated front beyond those it is already involved in in Gaza and Lebanon.
He emphasized that this represents another intelligence failure, in addition to the period preceding "Guardian of the Walls" (the war on Gaza in 2021) and the significant failure on October 7. He mentioned in his report that "after the milk has spilled completely," Israel faced a limited number of options in responding to the Iranian attack, indicating that the army had a ready plan for an immediate and severe response, but it was too complicated, leading to a decision to wait and assess the damage, thus postponing the response.
He noted that when the order to respond was issued between Thursday night and Friday, Israel did not announce responsibility for the operation. The analyst stated that according to indicators and reports in global media, the response was a surgical operation aimed at demonstrating superiority in intelligence, operational, and technological capabilities over Iran's defense systems and incapacitating them.
He pointed out that practically, Israel is engaged in a multi-front war that began in Gaza, expanded to Lebanon and Syria, and has now reached Yemen, Iraq, and Iran, alongside an emerging crisis with the United States, which has not assisted Tel Aviv at this stage. He added, "We will fight the enemy with a bag of pastries."
In conclusion, the analyst asserted that "Israel must quickly end the ongoing war in Gaza and stop issuing empty slogans about 'absolute victory' and reach an agreement to release the hostages. If this does not occur, the planned military operation in Rafah must be accelerated." He indicated that after a ceasefire in Gaza, the fire in Lebanon will calm down, and only then will Israel be able to rebuild its military strength according to a completely changed reality.
