Political forces in Lebanon are closely monitoring with great concern the warnings highlighted by several political leaders during their visits to the United States and European Union countries, particularly France. These warnings focus on the potential escalation of hostilities by the Israeli war faction towards the northern front, justified by the claim that there is no solution that would allow the return of displaced settlers to settlements near the Lebanese border. According to political sources for "Asharq Al-Awsat," the alarming messages received from these European-American visits have heightened concerns about deteriorating conditions along the northern front, necessitating a need for restraint and a positive, flexible approach to U.S. and French efforts. This is aimed at preventing Israel from expanding the war, particularly by urging compliance with Resolution 1701 and taking seriously warnings that Netanyahu may escalate confrontations with Hezbollah.
The sources note that Lebanese officials are treating the French-American warnings seriously, especially since Hezbollah's leadership has been informed, whether directly or through communication channels with the French, who are pressing Israel to prevent the war from spilling into southern Lebanon. This is paired with a proposal from Paris to calm the situation, which has recently undergone adjustments in response to feedback from Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, representing Hezbollah, which is exploring broader negotiation options beyond the French proposal, specifically those put forth by American mediator Amos Hochstein. Hochstein has halted his movement, linking his future visits between Beirut and Tel Aviv to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza.
Sources confirm that the American mediator is not inclined to resume negotiations unless a ceasefire in Gaza is achieved, as Hezbollah considers this a prerequisite for entering talks led by Berri to quell tensions in southern Lebanon. Although some local parties that do not oppose Hezbollah appreciate the French efforts to calm the southern situation, they doubt, based on insights from their visits to Europe and the U.S., that Tel Aviv would agree to extend a potential ceasefire in Gaza to include southern Lebanon.
These parties relay from American officials that Netanyahu is resolute in his confrontation with Hezbollah, aiming to establish a separation between the battlefronts linked by Hezbollah's support for Hamas. Hezbollah believes that Netanyahu is not in a position to expand the war. Political sources in continuous contact with Hezbollah responded to inquiries about its stance on these warnings by stating that Netanyahu's interest lies in making threats to impose his conditions on Hezbollah in favor of a diplomatic solution rather than escalating the war, especially since he faces undeniable international pressures.
These sources add that Netanyahu relies on warnings to intimidate Hezbollah while simultaneously pressuring it to concede to his terms, though this does not diminish the substantial destruction inflicted on front-line villages adjacent to Israel.
In this context, sources from the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal Movement) reveal that residents of the frontline villages have been forced to migrate to more secure areas in southern Lebanon, with their displacement not extending beyond southern geographical borders, despite significant damage amounting to approximately one and a half billion dollars, alongside losses sustained by the agricultural sector.
Thus, there is a fierce race between diplomatic efforts to calm conditions in the south and a potential war expansion decision from Netanyahu, with increasing concerns regarding the loosening of confrontation rules between Hezbollah and Israel. European envoys have been hastily arriving in Beirut, bearing a single message advocating for restraint and openness to mediation, specifically by the French and Americans, based on a reduction of conditions on Hezbollah's part.
Consequently, the warnings against war expansion have reached Lebanese leadership—both political and security—not only through dialogues from Lebanese figures in Paris and Washington but also directly from influential decision-makers at international and Arab levels. This situation worries them and prompts communication with Hezbollah's leadership to gauge their opinion and inquire about measures to prevent Israeli provocation of an expanded conflict with Lebanon, emphasizing the urgency to allow for diplomatic negotiations without delay.
The key question remains: How will Hezbollah respond? Will it heed these recommendations prioritizing diplomatic solutions? What stance will the caretaker government take regarding these warnings? Will its head, Najib Mikati, collaborate with Speaker Berri and receive support from Hezbollah to facilitate negotiations and lay the groundwork for implementing Resolution 1701 before July? This deadline has been suggested by multiple international parties as the latest timeframe to restore calm in the south and prevent a potentially unprecedented escalation that Tel Aviv may prepare for after completing its incursion into Rafah city.
