The differing parties have unanimously rejected the proposals of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who arrived in Lebanon yesterday. His mission could be described as having been stripped of its content before it even began, prompting Paris to replace the idea of dialogue with defining the specifications for the desired presidential candidate. These specifications also seemed unfeasible.
There are indications that the visit of the French envoy was contained and aimed at "preventing the imposition of external intervention, away from the calculations of internal Lebanese balance," according to a source close to the resistance axis, which hinted at the strengthening of the pillars of this team and its allies. It became clear that Hezbollah would not make concessions in Lebanon until the results of the war in Gaza are made apparent, believing it would gain long-term advantages from the war, making it hesitate in engaging with Western proposals, whether French in coordination with the U.S. or Arab international through the quintet committee.
It was leaked that the French envoy was carrying suggestions for holding dialogue meetings in the French capital, which the Shiite duo was the first to reject, making it conditional upon holding the dialogue in the parliament, chaired by its speaker. The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, also notably avoided meeting Le Drian, citing travel as the reason. The Lebanese Forces, already opposed to dialogue, insisted on consultation rather than a comprehensive roundtable dialogue. MP Pierre Bou Assi announced that the Forces reject any dialogue in Paris, Doha, or elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Gathering coordinates fully with House Speaker Nabih Berri. While they see the presidential vacancy as prolonged and believe it is essential to expedite the election of a president, they also regard dialogue as more necessary than ever, ultimately supporting the dialogue called for by President Berri and reiterating this stance on every occasion.
There are parliamentary blocs that do not oppose the form or place of dialogue, but without the participation of the major blocs, their approval would not suffice to ensure the success of any potential dialogue. A knowledgeable source told "Al-Anbaa": The question arises: Did the invitation to dialogue leak from Le Drian to gauge positions, or did someone sabotage his plan by revealing it before discussing it with the parties? The rejection calculations among the factions differ from each group's perspective. The House Speaker and his supporters view acceptance of dialogue in Paris as a step backward, which may be followed by steps that lead to a retraction from their presidential candidate and acceptance of a third option, which is currently unfathomable.
Conversely, the opposition and sovereignty advocates who reject dialogue are criticized for accepting outside what they refuse domestically, which undermines their credibility. Ultimately, any meeting outside Lebanon constrains the margin for maneuvering and must end with the imposition of a candidate or some formula, which all major project stakeholders reject.
The source observed that advocates for internal dialogue are confident that everyone will eventually agree to meet and reach an understanding, as otherwise, no presidential elections can occur. In general, any president who comes without consensus equates to the continuation of the vacuum.
In summary, it was evident that a team controlling multiple threads in the Lebanese scene is determined to establish the election of the president in Beirut, whether through a settlement that includes everyone or – though unlikely – through the ability of a party to impose its candidate. It also appeared that the format, meaning the outward presentation, matters to a specific team in terms of solidifying its management over affairs, which is strongly rejected by broad segments expressing opposition to establishing a status quo for every significant national entitlement, foremost of which is the presidential elections.
Regarding internal positions, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Dr. Samir Geagea, stated to "Akhbar Al-Yawm" agency yesterday that House Speaker Nabih Berri has condemned the work of the quintet committee because he wants its operations to align with his approach, which involves bypassing all constitutional mechanisms and taking control of the presidency. Geagea considered that the official dialogue table called for by Berri regarding presidential elections involves a constitutional amendment, as if someone is dissatisfied with the procedures laid out in the constitution. He noted his acceptance of dialogue in Lebanon, provided it revolves around the implementation of International Resolution 1701, stemming from the risks surrounding the South and Lebanon as a whole.
In southern operations, Israeli artillery targeted the Wadi Hammoul and outskirts of Naqoura with heavy shelling. Hefty Israeli warplanes were observed flying at medium altitude over the villages and towns of the Tyre district, according to "Al-Anbaa" Kuwaiti news.
