Amid current political tensions in the United States, the criminal conviction of former President Donald Trump adds complexity to the American political scene. Researcher Frank Luntz warns in opinion polls that this ruling could lead to unprecedented violence and threaten American democracy. In an interview with British Sky News, Luntz expressed concerns from survey participants that Trump could become a "victim" to his supporters if sentenced to prison, potentially pushing the country towards widespread protests and riots.
Trump: Hero or Victim?
According to Luntz, the ruling against Trump represents a pivotal moment in American politics, where he could be seen as a "victim" by his supporters, increasing the likelihood of street protests and riots. Trump may leverage this ruling to his advantage by portraying himself as a victim of the judicial system, which could garner him additional support and sympathy.
Biden and Trump: The Major Showdown
Luntz anticipates that the upcoming televised debate between Trump and Joe Biden in Georgia on June 27 will be one of the most significant debates in American history, potentially determining the fate of the upcoming elections. He believes this debate will be crucial even for those who typically do not engage with politics, noting that the winner could be the next President of the United States. Trump and Biden have agreed to debate each other on CNN on June 27 and on ABC on September 10.
A "Dangerous" Moment in American History
British Sky News reporter Mark Stone described Trump's attack on the judicial system as a dangerous moment in the history of the United States. Right-wing news channels promote Trump's message with "remarkable intensity," which could amplify support from his base. Although the ruling may not significantly impact voting intentions, it will likely enhance the enthusiasm of his supporters. Stone expressed surprise that all jury members found Trump guilty, as it was expected that at least one would dissent.
Are We Facing a "Civil War" Scenario?
Some American voters fear that political divisions could escalate into widespread violence, something echoed in the film "Civil War," which leads box office sales. According to The New York Times, the film attempts to exploit the anxiety expressed by Americans in polls and interviews, fearing that the country's divisions could lead to actual battles ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. The film's success has exceeded expectations at the box office, benefiting from a range of concerns and heated discussions among Americans, especially following the Capitol riot in 2021.
Fears of Civil War
In various polls and interviews, several voters expressed their concern that the divisions in the country may become so deep that they might not only lead to verbal conflicts but actual battles. This fear has sparked acts of violence and chaos in American politics, with violent threats against congressional members reaching record levels, as well as reports of hate crimes, including:
- The assault on Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer at their home.
- A man setting himself on fire during former President Trump’s trial, to which Trump responded, "I don't know. There is a level of passion I have not seen before. There is a level of hatred I have not seen before, and perhaps this is a bad mix."
President Joe Biden warned in his first campaign speech this year about the threats facing the country's democracy, indicating that the former president could incite political violence in the future. Trump glorified the Capitol rioters in 2021, referring to them as patriots and maintaining his view that the 2020 election was stolen from him. The former president avoided directly answering a question about whether the country is headed toward open conflict.
The widespread American trend towards self-storing.
**Film "Civil War"**
The film did not specify clear sides in the conflict or provide details on the reasons for the conflict or each party's visions for the country's future; Congress, courts, or other civil institutions were mentioned only in hints related to the presidency and the FBI. The choice to omit explicit mentions of the parties or institutions was a deliberate decision by British writer and director Alex Garland, who began working on the film in 2020 before the Capitol riots in 2021. Garland stated to The New York Times: "I would say this film is about checks and balances: polarization, division, and the way populist politics leads to extremism, where extremism itself ends up and the role of the press in all this."
Strategic expert Eric Schultz, who met Garland in 2021, affirmed that the film's aim could highlight the dangers of polarization, not only in the United States but globally, reaching the broadest possible audience.
Republican Polarization
The ambiguity in the film's events helped attract an audience fearful that political divisions could escalate into a wider conflict. David Mandel, the producer and writer of a television program, noted that the most successful films and programs about American political life have been interrelated with public opinion on politics. Political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, who studies civil wars believes that the likelihood of such a conflict is not merely metaphorical. She argues that the country faces a decade or two of political instability and violence, which could include the assassination of politicians or judges and the rise of militias.
