The Shiite duo has made new proposals regarding the suspended presidential file since October 31, 2022. Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah offered, in a speech delivered on Friday, to separate the presidential election from the southern front, which Nasrallah uniquely tied to the cessation of war in Gaza. Anyone following the political steps of the party understands that Nasrallah has presented a solid proposal capable of making headway in the presidential file, before entering a vacancy imposed by the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November.
Nasrallah's proposal stemmed from his assertion that the conflict in the south and Gaza has no relation to the election of the president in Lebanon, asking if there is any method other than dialogue and consultation to reach a solution. The internal disagreements and external vetoes that delayed the presidential elections for a year before the Al-Aqsa flood have hindered the process.
Upon careful analysis, it can be inferred that Nasrallah, along with his partner in the duo, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, could potentially facilitate the presidential requirement, although the path to implementation may not be straightforward, and the awaited white smoke from the Nejmeh Square during a session to elect the president, which has been long delayed since mid-June 2023, may still be elusive.
Attention must also be paid to the results of the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. President Joe Biden on June 8, amidst the 80th anniversary celebrations of the Allied landings on the beaches of Normandy during World War II. If the presidential requirement is to witness any resolution, its trajectory may lean towards adopting a candidate from a third option category, reaching an agreement on a candidate acceptable to both the "party" and its partner, the Speaker of Parliament. This candidate would ideally have Christian acceptance and the consensus of a majority of the Christian factions, fundamentally supported by the Maronite Church (Bkirki) and the Vatican.
In this case, according to a prominent source who spoke to Al-Anbaa, there is a short list of three names: the former ambassador to the Vatican and former director of Lebanese army intelligence, Brigadier General George Khoury; the current ambassador to the Vatican and former deputy, Fred Elias Khazen; and former minister Jean Louis Qardahi. The informed source believes that missing the narrow opportunity to finalize the presidential requirement means mixing all the cards and further diving into the unknown.
The failure of external initiatives, thus far, to solve the presidential requirement has spurred internal efforts, while the issue of borders remains under the purview of Senior U.S. Advisor Amos Hochstein, who is working on a three-phase formula. U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed in a speech from the White House what Al-Anbaa mentioned yesterday, stating that the American plan starts with the return of displaced persons in its first phase to border regions. The U.S. movement regarding borders coincides with efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza amid talks of progress in negotiations.
Regarding the presidential issue, local forces and parties have shown motivation to act similarly to the National Moderation Bloc initiative. In this context, the Progressive Socialist Party has begun initiatives towards political parties but did not wish to call its efforts an initiative, instead referring to them as a team effort. A parliamentary delegation led by the head of the Democratic Gathering, MP Teimur Jumblatt, will begin its tour next Tuesday with a visit to the leader of the Lebanese Forces party, Dr. Samir Geagea, in Maarab, intending to encompass other political leaders.
MP Bilal Abdullah from the meeting expressed that the party's movement stems from a sense of the perilous existential threat facing Lebanon, requiring everyone to make concessions to elect a president, which would pave the way for restoring institutional momentum and revitalizing ordinary life in the country.
