Presidential initiatives in Lebanon are caught in a vicious circle with the rigidity of the positions of various parties. However, there are cautious expectations regarding the flexibility that has begun to emerge among some, particularly in terms of narrowing the presidential gap between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the Lebanese Forces party. Sources from the Progressive Socialist Party provide insights into the activity being undertaken by the Democratic Gathering bloc in an effort to resolve the ongoing presidential crisis, which has lasted for 20 months. This effort follows the National Moderation Initiative and comes after the initiative by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Deputy Gibran Bassil, who reached out to Speaker Berri by expressing support for dialogue.
The sources place the blame for the rigid positions on both camps that exchange accusations of obstruction, namely the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and the Amal Movement) and the opposition, predominantly the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. They describe a political clash and a fracture between the unified political Shiism and the fragmented political Maronism. They tell Asharq Al-Awsat that both sides remain committed to their positions; the duo refuses to retreat from the idea of dialogue, while the opposition rejects it and denies it being chaired by Speaker Berri, opposing the establishment of precedents, although it acknowledges some insufficient flexibility to indicate any positivity.
Currently, the Socialist Party is working to avoid institutionalizing dialogue by proposing consultations alongside election sessions, specifically between these sessions, which clearly appear unlikely to initially lead to the election of a president, while maintaining Berri's presidency. This proposition reflects some flexibility from both sides but has not yet reached a positive agreement. Notably, the Lebanese Forces propose conducting consultations between parliamentary election sessions among the blocs while maintaining the dispute over Berri’s presidency.
Additionally, the Socialist Party is working to ensure that the blocs commit to not obstructing the required quorum for election sessions, a commitment that has not been clearly established so far, according to the sources.
Alongside the internal issues, the sources mention the connection between the Lebanese and presidential files and the regional situation, particularly the war in Gaza, asserting: Hezbollah insists on separating them, but so far, there doesn't seem to be any tangible translation of that.
After the meeting with the Socialist Party, Deputy Hadi Abou Al-Hassan remarked that the visit is part of a consultative effort, and they agreed to expand the participation base for those who wish to exert positive pressure to move towards presidential election sessions, emphasizing the necessity of two factors for electing a president: the first is administration and intention, and the second is the circumstance. He stated that the Lebanese alone cannot secure this requirement without the help of Lebanon's friends, and it is necessary to mature the circumstances to align with the favorable international moment.
For his part, Kataeb member Deputy Cesar Abi Khalil confirmed ongoing discussions with parliamentary blocs that align with them to end the presidential vacancy, according to Asharq Al-Awsat.
