When Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner military group marched with their weapons toward Moscow amid the war in Ukraine, shooting down Russian army helicopters, observers thought that Russian President Vladimir Putin was weaker than he had ever shown during his quarter-century rule. However, a year later, the Russian president appears at the height of his power.
Putin's actions after the uprising have made Russia more resilient than ever, with its institutions as cohesive as steel.
**The Strong Putin**
Following Prigozhin's death in late June 2023, his group underwent a de facto reorganization, falling under the authority of the Ministry of Defense, which the rebels criticized for its corruption, inefficiency, and slow logistical measures. Putin then launched a reorganization within the ministry's officials in spring 2024, seemingly responding to the rebels' demands. This move, presented as an anti-corruption effort in Russia, led to the imprisonment of generals and Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov, as well as the dismissal of other officials.
Nikolai Petrov, a researcher at Chatham House, states that the Russian president "exercises direct and ongoing control over all important actors; it is no longer possible to allow anyone to have the autonomy that Prigozhin enjoyed or to appoint an officer capable of rebellion or winning the loyalty of the troops."
**A Major Operation**
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, loyal to Putin, was moved to a prestigious but less significant position, and Putin assigned the ministry to economist Andrei Belousov. Among Belousov's aides, he appointed a relative, Anna Tsevilova, and Pavel Fradkov, the son of former Prime Minister and former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Mikhail Fradkov. Petrov noted that "the military institution is among those that can theoretically play a larger political role," and Putin has adopted a method that prevents any potential rebellion. His message also indicates that he is not purging the Ministry of Defense due to political pressure from Wagner; rather, it is a necessary choice.
While Moscow has regained the initiative on the battlefield since autumn, it is fighting a war it believed it could win in days, with the priority being to reorganize the military institution and develop an effective war economy for years of confrontation with the West. Nigel Gold Davis, a researcher specializing in Russian affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, claims that "Putin's ability to take these actions and confront the interests and incomes of senior military officials is a sign of strength, not weakness."
Before the major anti-corruption operation, Putin also succeeded in consolidating his authority by winning the presidential elections held in March, securing 87% of the votes.
**Russia Stronger**
In the aftermath of the uprising, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Russia would be stronger following the Wagner group's rebellion. In a press conference, Lavrov stated: "Russia has always emerged stronger and more resilient from every challenge, and this time will be no different; we feel that this process has begun," referring to the anti-corruption operation.
**An Astonishing Economy**
Despite the unprecedented levels of sanctions imposed on Russia after the war in Ukraine, many economists were astonished, as its economy has become the fastest-growing in Europe. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), "the Russian economy is doing well, all things considered, which has made Putin popular for challenging the West in his significant assault on the Russian economy." Instead of contracting as many had predicted, the Russian economy grew by 2.6%, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, despite Western sanctions, which include the freezing of $300 billion in assets.
Russia's relations with other countries have allowed it to trade freely with nations like China, India, and Brazil, while friendly nations are helping it avoid Western sanctions. Economists believe that "Russia is a gigantic economy" that would take decades of comprehensive sanctions and mismanagement for it to kneel, which is currently unlikely.
**The Most Dangerous Crisis in Decades**
The Wagner rebellion posed the most serious challenge to Putin's rule thus far and represents the most significant security crisis since he assumed power in late 1999, coinciding with the subsequent failed Ukrainian counteroffensive. At that time, the Ukrainian military stated that it was "monitoring the emerging rift between Prigozhin and Putin." The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense considered the uprising an opportunity for Ukraine. Conversely, Moscow warned that the Kyiv army was taking advantage of the situation to regroup its forces and launch attacks in the Bakhmut region.
The rebellion also prompted responses from world leaders, with Washington, Paris, Berlin, and Rome stating that they were closely monitoring the developments.