Lebanon

Is "Targeted Warfare" a Substitute for a Comprehensive War?

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It is not a detail that Washington adopts Hezbollah's equation to end the war on the southern front: stopping the Israeli aggression on Gaza automatically means stopping the war on the northern front of occupied Palestine. Naturally, the Americans know that the road to preventing the expansion of the war passes through the application of Hezbollah's equation; otherwise, the party will support Gaza to the end, even if it costs the escalation of confrontations into a comprehensive war. This message was conveyed by the American mediator Amos Hochstein through high-level Lebanese political channels during his recent visit to Lebanon. This has led Washington, according to very reliable information, to inform the same parties that there will be no expansion of the war in Lebanon at any cost and that Washington is making every effort to prevent the situation from escalating. There is a trend toward reaching a settlement between Hamas and the Israeli enemy that would allow for the cessation of aggression on Gaza within two months at the latest, according to a proposal by President Joe Biden, opening the door for ending confrontations on the southern border, as reported by "Al-Liwaa."

A diplomatic source revealed an informal agreement, or one that is not yet finalized, regarding how to implement Resolution 1701, which the American mediator carried during his recent visit to Lebanon. Hochstein is expected to visit Lebanon again in mid-July. Concurrently, the information conveyed by the source indicates an intensification of American-Qatar coordination aimed at supporting Qatar's efforts with Hamas to convince it to accept President Biden's proposal to end the war in Gaza for fear of its expansion to Lebanon. The Qataris have contacted several Lebanese parties to explore the possibility of Hezbollah mediating with Hamas to convince it to accept the proposal.

However, the source warned that the notion of the U.S. restraining the Israeli enemy from expanding the war is not entirely accurate. Information and messages point to the possibility of a mini-war or, more clearly, the expansion of strikes from both sides away from the currently applicable rules. The source hinted that there could be potential targeting of vital facilities, residential complexes, or infrastructure. According to the same source, there is nothing to prevent the enemy from committing foolish acts that could push confrontations into a comprehensive war. However, a detailed review of Washington's supportive stance towards ending the war in Gaza leads to the belief that neither Washington, Tel Aviv, nor even the Europeans and Arabs have an interest in the war's expansion, as this would lead to a complete explosion in the region, extending beyond Lebanon and the Israeli entity, dragging with it all regional countries.

From a monitoring standpoint, important Lebanese sources confirmed that we are currently at a very dangerous turning point between war and no war. We are in a very critical and delicate phase; at any moment, the situation could escalate beyond what it is today. They warned: We are not saying that we are heading for a comprehensive war, but any miscalculation could lead to a very hot summer on both fronts, according to "Al-Liwaa."

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