Eyes are turning to the French capital, Paris, today to follow the meeting between U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein and French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, and what might result from these discussions regarding the open front in the south, where the United States continues to seek a ceasefire as it does not want a regional war in the months or weeks leading up to the U.S. presidential elections. France shares this interest in preventing war to achieve a political breakthrough externally amidst the pressures faced by French President Emmanuel Macron domestically.
In the south, the situation remains unchanged; aggression continues, and responses follow. A Lebanese farmer was martyred yesterday, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate by shelling Kiryat Shmona with Katyusha rockets, alongside other Israeli positions. Meanwhile, Israeli threats remain constant. Political analyst Amin Bashir views Hochstein's movement as not surprising, especially since the U.S. is more realistic, and the French cannot move without U.S. approval. However, Washington, now entering an election and debate season, is no longer able to make major decisions like war.
In a conversation with "Anbaa" electronic newspaper, Bashir points out that a crucial period will be in August, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Congress and before Israeli students return to school; during this time, the near future of the conflict will be defined. He, however, rules out the possibility of the war expanding to become a comprehensive conflict, although he expects Netanyahu to increase pressure, noting that neither the Iranians nor Americans want a large-scale war, considering that what is happening today with threats and escalation falls within the realm of psychological warfare.
Regarding the presidential entitlements and the anticipated movement of the quintet committee countries, as well as whether there is any chance for electing a president in the foreseeable future, Bashir believes that the movement is merely a way to buy time until the major entitlements are over, namely the Gaza war and the U.S. elections. Thus, all entitlements are postponed, and even the prospect of expanding the war in the south is delayed until after the recent diplomatic attempts to establish a ceasefire. During this interim period, political leaders must gather themselves and meet to discuss how to shield Lebanon from the flames of war and settlement; otherwise, the future will be worse, according to "Anbaa" electronic news.
