Lebanon

Anticipation of Diplomatic Activity .. American and French Pressure to Dismantle Negative Scenarios

Anticipation of Diplomatic Activity .. American and French Pressure to Dismantle Negative Scenarios

"Al-Jumhouriya" learned from sources in the National Moderation Bloc that any new presidential move by the bloc has not yet been decided due to the absence of some of its members, either for pilgrimage or due to regional commitments, with a meeting scheduled for this week once all members are present to determine the next steps. Official sources informed "Al-Jumhouriya" that the Arab and international quintet committee, despite the announcement by one of its members, Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, that they will resume their efforts soon, has not yet decided on any new steps, awaiting supportive developments from abroad, particularly the scheduled meeting this week between American envoy Amos Hochstein and French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian in Paris. These sources indicated they do not expect any positive development soon in the presidential file or in terms of calming tensions on the southern front.

### Hochstein's Activity

Amid this atmosphere, fears have risen regarding the uncertainty surrounding most ongoing communications aimed at avoiding any escalation of the war in Lebanon and the region, potentially involving additional regional powers and their military arsenals, particularly following the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 14, which resulted in the deaths of several Iranian advisors.

On the eve of Hochstein's anticipated movements and information leaked about his intention to visit Paris for a meeting with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian, diplomatic and political references via "Al-Jumhouriya" remained reserved about this information and its timing. They stated that despite extensive open communications and the diplomatic efforts led by Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib between Paris, Brussels, and several other capitals, he had not been informed of such a development and continues his communications with EU officials following his meetings in France and Belgium.

### Lebanese Concerns

In this context, the references mentioned that although they are reassured by the efforts to prevent any military explosion that the region cannot bear, especially regarding Lebanon and its citizens, they remain concerned about the volume of statements issued by Gulf, European, and American countries advising their nationals to leave, which is seen as a stance lacking support for Lebanon as a state and government, a victim of this conflict. It is widely recognized that the official Lebanese position rejects war and seeks to implement UN resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701.

The references noted that they had been apprised of a range of negative scenarios that are being dismantled under American and French pressures, along with the efforts of other parties, notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. They do not share the fears of these nations regarding their citizens, as their security is tied to that of the Lebanese people, and leaving Lebanon vulnerable to a stubborn government in Tel Aviv could herald grave dangers whose repercussions would not remain confined within Lebanon's geographical borders—a reality understood by all. The most severe aspect of these statements is that they undermine commitments to pursue a sustainable resolution to the Palestinian issue, particularly in achieving the declaration of the establishment of Israeli and Palestinian states, with current events in Gaza and the West Bank negating these promises before the eyes of their proposers, regardless of their positions.

### Diplomatic Campaign

On another note, diplomatic sources revealed to "Al-Jumhouriya" that the results of Bou Habib's communications have led to a limited reconsideration of some Arab stances, following clarifications provided by Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi after their weekend call. Bou Habib also received a call from Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdellatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, in his capacity as President of the Arab Foreign Ministers Conference at its thirty-fourth session, denouncing threats against Lebanon and their potential consequences. Moreover, Bou Habib was informed by Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf of a stance condemning threats and calling for solidarity and support for Lebanon amidst its current critical situation.

### European Efforts

In the European context, Bou Habib held meetings in Brussels with officials from the European Union, outlining his efforts to reduce escalation and avoid a large-scale war in the south that could lead to an open regional conflict. In a meeting with High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Josep Borrell, Bou Habib sensed a willingness from the EU to make necessary efforts to ease tensions in southern Lebanon.

Bou Habib also met with EU ambassadors from the 27 member states, partaking in a rare and exceptional session of the Political and Security Committee, where discussions revolved around the current conditions in Lebanon and the region, ways to support Lebanon and its army, as well as ongoing diplomatic initiatives within the framework of a political solution and de-escalation.

The diplomatic references confirmed to "Al-Jumhouriya" that Bou Habib's meetings were timely, coinciding with the scheduled leaders' meetings in Europe. They presented the expected outcomes and overarching European orientations with the EU's diplomatic adviser, Magdaléna Gruno, focusing on anticipated results and the EU's positions regarding the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine. Bou Habib concluded his visits with a meeting with the Director-General for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations at the European Commission, Geert Jan Koopman, ahead of his upcoming visit to Lebanon in the coming days to discuss development and economic issues.

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