Hezbollah's agreement not to link the fronts of Gaza and southern Lebanon to the election of the president does not mean, according to sources accompanying the efforts of the Quintet ambassadors to resolve the presidential election crisis, that the political path for the election is open. Rather, it seems that their intent is to avert being accused of obstructing its accomplishment, not only due to their insistence on supporting the nomination of former MP Sleiman Frangieh for the presidency, but also because they link their final stance to the rearrangement of the situation in the Middle East. This arrangement would allow them to establish an advantageous position, ultimately securing a role for their ally Iran in any potential settlements stemming from the ongoing negotiations. This is particularly relevant given Iran's interest in presenting itself to the international community as reformist following the election of Massoud Bezhikian as president, correcting its foreign relations as opposed to his late predecessor, Ibrahim Raisi. Hence, Bezhikian's ascension to the presidency was meticulously planned, according to "Asharq Al-Awsat."
The Quintet ambassadors are now on vacation, and the sources point out that their mission to facilitate the election of the president has encountered the unpreparedness of most parliamentary blocs to meet halfway to create a breakthrough that would prevent the prolonged vacancy of the presidency. They are convinced that a third presidential option precedes other options and forms a basis for a presidential settlement that would prevent the country from drifting into uncertainty.
These sources indicate that the deputies' lack of response to the Quintet's initiative will lead most of its ambassadors to return to their countries for their summer vacations while waiting for a ceasefire resolution on both the Gaza and southern fronts as an impetus to resume their activities in early August. They confirm that one of the Quintet's members, Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, is preparing to leave Beirut for Riyadh in the coming hours to consult with senior Saudi officials regarding the Lebanese file and the current status of the communications conducted by the Quintet to create a breakthrough for the presidential election, which remains stuck due to the closed political horizon surrounding it.
The sources reaffirm that the Quintet is ready to reactivate its efforts at any moment if internal conditions change in favor of facilitating the presidential election, believing that they have given themselves a break until early next month, considering it sufficient to gauge the outcome of American pressures on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Egyptian and Qatari pressures on the leadership of Hamas, to reach a ceasefire on the Gaza front that would presumably extend to southern Lebanon.
In anticipation of the results of Netanyahu's upcoming visit to the U.S. on the 24th, the sources assert that the ceasefire on the Gaza front, while an initial stage in assessing the political landscape following the restoration of calm in the sector, is not less important than the discussions Netanyahu will conduct during his visit to Washington. They emphasize that the election of a president cannot be separated from these developments due to their potential repercussions on the overall Lebanese situation, particularly concerning the extension of the ceasefire in Gaza to southern Lebanon and Israel's readiness to engage in negotiations to calm the situation along the northern front. This is contrary to some members of Netanyahu's team declaring that a ceasefire would not automatically extend to the south without an agreement linked to the resettlement of residents to their original communities.
In other words, according to Western diplomatic sources for "Asharq Al-Awsat," Israel is not prepared to accept that the ceasefire in Gaza would automatically extend to southern Lebanon, reverting to the situation that prevailed before October 8, when Hezbollah decided to engage in confrontation by supporting Hamas against the Israeli incursion into the Gaza Strip.
The same sources affirm that next month represents a rare opportunity for electing a president before the current U.S. administration under President Joe Biden shifts its focus to preparations for renewing his bid for a second term, contingent on the Democratic Party's decisions regarding potential alternative candidates. They foresee that missing this opportunity would delay the election of a Lebanese president until after the U.S. presidential elections, particularly if international and Arab efforts succeed in establishing a prolonged truce on the Gaza front, extending to southern Lebanon.
The sources point out that U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein, currently in Greece, is eagerly awaiting the opportunity to travel to Beirut once a ceasefire in the Gaza sector is reached to resume his efforts to stabilize the ceasefire in the south by preparing the political and security conditions to implement UN Resolution 1701, supported by delineating the land borders between the two countries by finding solutions to the overlapping points currently occupied by Israel, which Lebanon insists should be returned as they fall under its sovereignty.
These sources further reveal that Lebanon, both at the government and parliamentary levels, feels reassured by international pressures on Israel to prevent the escalation of the war and to keep the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel under control. They state that Germany is playing a role in this matter with American backing, noting that the communication between the Deputy Director of German Intelligence and Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem goes beyond just calming the situation, but also seeks to examine the main titles for a settlement that would restore stability definitively on both sides of the borders between the two countries, according to "Asharq Al-Awsat."
