After the assassination of Hamas's political bureau chief Ismail Haniya in Tehran, the Palestinian movement announced that it has begun the process of selecting a successor for Haniya. Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, issued a statement saying it has "initiated extensive consultations within its leadership and advisory institutions to choose a new head for the movement." The group also stated that media reports and social media posts regarding specific individuals being appointed to the leadership position are unfounded.
Furthermore, Hamas stated that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, rejects the idea of appointing Khaled Mashal, the former leader who survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Jordan in 1997 and currently resides in Qatar, to lead Hamas. Instead, Sinwar prefers political bureau member Khalil al-Hayya as Haniya's successor. Sources indicated that Sinwar favors a candidate with good relations with Iran and Syria to take over for Haniya. Additionally, sources clarified that the appointment of a leadership figure would be temporary until elections within Hamas are held in the coming months.
Haniya had been leading the political bureau of the movement until his assassination. His deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut in January and was expected to automatically replace him. Al-Arouri's position has remained vacant since his death. Regardless of who becomes Haniya's successor, experts indicate that it will not impact how Hamas conducts its war against Israel in Gaza, with leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, operating with a high degree of autonomy during the conflict.
### Turkey's Position
In an unexpected move, shortly after Haniya's assassination, the Turkish Foreign Ministry appointed Hamas leader Khaled Mashal as the acting head of the political bureau of the movement. The ministry issued a statement saying, "Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met in the Qatari capital with the acting head of Hamas's political bureau Khaled Mashal and offered his condolences (for the death of Ismail Haniya)." Hamas has remained silent to avoid further escalating tensions among the leadership from Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.
### Election Mechanism within Hamas
The new candidate is set to lead the political bureau, which is Hamas's executive body established in 1989, as detailed by Mohyab Suleiman Ahmed al-Nawati in his book "Hamas from Within," published in 2004. The idea of establishing the bureau came from Musa Abu Marzouk, the head of the international relations office of the movement, during a wave of Israeli arrests targeting leadership figures, including the late Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of the movement, who was not released until 1997.
Hamas conducts its internal elections every four years under complete secrecy, due to concerns about security persecution from Israel. The elections are divided into three regions: Gaza Strip, West Bank, and the "external" region (outside Palestinian territories).
Hamas's internal elections involve several stages in a hierarchical manner, starting with the election of "local advisory councils" at the neighborhood level, which elect "major advisory councils" at the provincial level. From these councils, administrative bodies emerge, leading to the election of a general advisory council for each region and subsequently the regional head, culminating in the appointment of a number of movement members to serve on the "executive committee" (political bureau), the highest leadership body led by the head of the political bureau.
These elections are conducted without allowing candidacy or election campaigning; rather, candidacies are automatic for individuals holding certain positions according to the organizational hierarchy, and they are conducted in complete secrecy, covering all administrative and advisory levels.
Movement leaders do not nominate themselves for leadership positions. Instead, elected members of the advisory council nominate individuals they deem suitable for the position of political bureau head on the same election day, and the candidate receiving the highest votes becomes the leader of the movement. Therefore, the decision to elect its leader goes back to the advisory institution.
The 2021 Hamas elections in Gaza witnessed a significant development, as names of elected political bureau members were officially announced for the first time, with a group photo of them published on the movement's official website. The last electoral process incorporated a mechanism allowing those who had been members for 15 years to be eligible for election, after previous elections were limited to individuals holding the rank of sergeant, which is the highest rank in Hamas.
While Hamas enjoys full organizational freedom in Gaza, allowing for the public mention of its leadership names, the movement in the West Bank is subject to conditions that necessitate maintaining secrecy in its organizational work to avoid Israeli persecution. Will the Palestinian figure succeeding Haniya lean more towards Iran or towards Turkey and Qatar?
