There is no doubt that Israel's assassination of the head of Hamas's political bureau in the heart of Tehran on July 31 froze the already stalled ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. However, the appointment of Hamas leader in the Strip, Yehya Sinwar, in place of Ismail Haniyeh has complicated those negotiations further, putting them in jeopardy, according to several analysts and observers. This has led many Western and Arab countries to question whether Israel would sit with Sinwar, whom it has labeled a terrorist, at the negotiation table, especially since Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz described him as a major terrorist and called for his elimination. Meanwhile, Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari suggested that there is only one place for Yehya Sinwar that Israel is arranging for him, referring to the grave.
On the other hand, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority regarded the choice of Sinwar as "a message to Israel that he is alive and that Hamas leadership in Gaza is ongoing." U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a different opinion, stating that Sinwar was and remains the primary decision-maker regarding the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. He also indicated that the new head of Hamas's political bureau must decide on a ceasefire with Israel.
In contrast, a senior Hamas official commented on Sinwar's appointment on Tuesday, stating that the move carries a "strong message to the occupation that Hamas is continuing its path of resistance." Jihad Harb, a political analyst at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research based in the West Bank, argued that "Hamas is sending a message that it strategically stands behind the armed resistance approach and places Sinwar as the undisputed leader of the movement," as reported by the "Wall Street Journal."
Moreover, several Arab mediators considered this step complicating the ceasefire negotiations, particularly since Sinwar's whereabouts are unknown to many and he spends days without communicating with Hamas's political leaders. These predictions come as the region remains on the brink of a volcano, with concerns of an all-out war in light of an expected Iranian response to Israel following Haniyeh's assassination last week, and anticipation of an attack by Hezbollah in retaliation for the killing of its senior leader Fouad Shukr in an Israeli raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut on the night of July 30.
