The selection of Yahya Sinwar as president of the political bureau of Hamas, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, was a regional and international shock for fear it would disrupt negotiations. However, Israeli media claimed that his selection could end the war, linking it to his political ambitions.
According to an article by Kobi Michael in the "Jerusalem Post," published on Wednesday titled "Sinwar's Selection Over Haniyeh Might Help Advance Hostage Negotiations and End the War," he considered that Haniyeh was an obstacle to negotiations, while Sinwar would approach negotiations more realistically since he remains inside Gaza.
Regarding the context of these views, the author stated that it is difficult to assess Sinwar's ability to act as a leader of Hamas and represent it abroad. However, Haniyeh had indeed represented a stricter stance in negotiations compared to the more pragmatic approach that Sinwar adopts.
He also predicted that with Sinwar's election, he might want to perform his role as the leader of the movement and ensure his election in the 2025 Hamas elections, which he could only achieve after concluding the hostage deal, leading to the war's end, and ensuring he demands that Hamas leaders are not assassinated.
The importance of Sinwar in this position increases since, as he has become the head of Hamas's political bureau, he is also the leader in Gaza, and he could solidify his position as a leader and enhance Hamas's status as an alternative to Fatah, aiming to seize the Palestinian Authority and the PLO, according to Kobi Michael’s assessment.
On the other hand, the author noted that initially everyone expected Khaled Mashal, the deputy head of Hamas's political bureau living abroad, to be Haniyeh's successor, but he was not chosen due to regional factors. The selection of Sinwar surprised many since it occurred during the war (which he leads on the ground in Gaza), and he is also pursued and in hiding.
Hamas announced on Tuesday the appointment of its leader in Gaza as the head of its political bureau, succeeding Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran on July 31.
What if Negotiations Were to Happen?
Regarding the surprise in choosing Sinwar to succeed Haniyeh, Palestinian political analyst Nizar Jibril told "Sky News Arabia": "He is Israel's number one wanted man, whom they consider responsible for what happened on October 7. His selection was a shock to all Palestinians, and we felt that negotiations collapsed. No one knew that Haniyeh was the one obstructing the hostage deal; everyone was saying that Sinwar was the obstacle."
However, Jibril believes that what was stated in the "Jerusalem Post" article may be far from reality, justifying this by stating that Israel "will not accept Sinwar as the head of Hamas, and its policy over the past decades has been to assassinate those who threaten its security. Sinwar planned the largest disaster in Israel's history, and they will pursue him throughout their history."
Thus, the Palestinian analyst predicts that "even if Israel agrees to negotiate with Sinwar, I believe it will not reach an agreement that ends the war; it may be a partial agreement at most, and Israel will not allow him to exercise his power openly. However, in the realm of politics, anything is possible."
