In Britain, forecasts suggest tough days ahead as COVID-19 infections rise, with a government minister warning of a "severe week." However, an expert downplays these gloomy predictions and paints a less bleak picture. The British newspaper "Daily Mail" reports that the forecasts of Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management at the University of Bristol, have consistently proven accurate regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last July, when British authorities lifted most COVID-19 restrictions—a move many thought reckless—Thomas stated that Britain would not face a major wave of the pandemic. He expressed confidence in his predictions due to a mathematical model he developed to chart and predict the pandemic's trajectory. According to "Daily Mail," the results were impressively accurate. While government advisers warned of a skyrocketing infection rate due to the easing of restrictions, Thomas predicted that infections would decline, and they did.
Currently, many in Britain are discussing a challenging period ahead in combating the pandemic. Among them is British Health Minister Sajid Javid, who remarked that this week would be harsher in the country amid rising daily infections. Britain is not alone; various regions across the world are discussing a new wave of COVID-19, such as in Russia.
Forecasts indicate that Britain is on track to average 100,000 daily infections in the coming weeks—a significantly high number compared to the 70,000 daily infections during the peak of the winter wave around last Christmas. These pessimistic predictions have led to calls for tightening mask-wearing and social distancing rules and even imposing lockdowns. Meanwhile, Morocco has suspended flights with Britain due to the surge in infections there.
The current infection rate stands at 40,000 daily in England.
Significant Changes
Philip Thomas believes that the numbers do not tell the whole story, especially regarding current forecasts, emphasizing that there have been substantial changes since last winter's tough days. He noted that vaccination efforts in Britain have broken the link between infections and serious illness and deaths. He referred to a study by the Italian National Health Institute which concluded that fully vaccinated individuals are unlikely to die from the disease unless they are elderly or suffer from chronic illnesses.
The reasons for imposing lockdowns in Britain were to protect the healthcare system from collapsing under massive patient numbers. Thomas asserts that the solution is for the British government to proceed with the booster shot program, despite its slow pace. He does not see justification for imposing new restrictions.
The British Health Minister is advocating for a third dose for those eligible—a stance Thomas agrees with.
60,000 Cases
The British expert estimates that infections will not exceed 60,000 daily, which is much lower than the pessimistic predictions. He anticipates that the group most affected will be high school students, who have not been vaccinated to the same extent as adults, and severe infections are unlikely to be recorded in this group.
