Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, an executive at the International Monetary Fund, confirmed in an interview with "Al Arabiya" that there are several reasons for concern regarding the sustainability of the recovery. The first reason is the mutations of the coronavirus and the impact of health factors on recovery and growth. He added that another reason relates to the security of information networks, given the increasing reliance on them, which control the economy and social communication, thus making their risks significant. He pointed to a third reason, which is the mishandling of climate changes and the rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy alternatives, leading to a rise in energy prices.
He considered that the slight decrease in the IMF's economic growth forecast for the global economy in 2021 to 5.9%, while remaining unchanged for 2022 at 4.9%, also reflects variations in growth rates for each country. These estimates and revisions for 2021 indicate a decline in the ranking of advanced economies, partly due to supply chain disruptions. He discussed the true growth rates estimated by the fund in light of the Federal Reserve's exit from its monetary easing program aimed at controlling inflation, cautioning against the negative impact of this step, which includes higher imported inflation and effects on capital flows and their costs for emerging markets and Arab countries.
He noted a negative shift in net financial flows to emerging markets, which necessitates that emerging countries and Arab nations, especially central banks, take significant steps to address the challenges that monetary policies will face in the upcoming phase.
