Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger outlined three possible scenarios for the conclusion of the conflict in Ukraine. In an interview with "The Spectator," the retired diplomat stated that "if Russia stops at the current level, it will have invaded 20% of Ukraine, the bulk of Donbas, the industrial region, essential agriculture, and part of the territory along the Black Sea coast. If it stops at this point, that would be a victory for them." He continued by noting that "NATO's role (in such a case) wouldn't be as significant as it was thought to be in the past."
He detailed the second scenario, which involves an attempt to "dislodge" Russia from the territories it has controlled during its military operation, including Crimea. He warned that if military actions continue, "the risks of the West entering directly into war with Russia will increase."
Kissinger identified the third scenario as a return to the status quo ante before February 24. In this case, he said that Ukraine would be rearmed and would have close ties to NATO, possibly becoming a member of the alliance in the future. He added that this scenario assumes a freezing of the conflict for a certain period.
