According to a new study conducted by the University of Southampton, the intensity and wind speed of hurricanes forming near the Bermuda region have doubled over the past six decades due to rising ocean temperatures.
Hurricanes derive their energy from the ocean's surface, and warm waters help make hurricanes stronger and more energetic. According to the study, researchers determined that between 1955 and 2019, the average density, intensity, and wind speed of hurricanes near Bermuda increased from 35 to 73 miles per hour. This corresponds to an increase of more than six miles per hour per decade. At the same time, surface and subsurface temperatures in the area rose by nearly 1.1 degrees Celsius. Based on the average temperature of the upper ocean in the top 50 meters of the Atlantic Ocean, experts developed a method to predict hurricane intensity near the Bermuda Triangle.
Samantha Hallam, the lead researcher of the study, stated, "The approach we used can provide a better way to predict hurricane intensity in the Bermuda region compared to the current approach or operational methods alone. It can also be used in other parts of the sub-tropical Atlantic with varying depths." Hallam added that they utilized the potential intensity theory of hurricanes, local weather balloon trajectories, and surface and upper ocean monitoring operations to study conditions inside and around hurricanes that passed within 100 kilometers of Bermuda over the past 65 years.
The researchers conducted a statistical analysis of hurricane paths within a 100-kilometer range of Bermuda over the last sixty years. Data on surface and subsurface ocean temperatures were obtained from the Bermuda Atlantic Times Series (BATS) Hydrostation Program. Co-author of the study Marc Joshard, the director of the weather service in Bermuda, stated that the results highlight the significant importance and important role that subsurface ocean temperatures play compared to surface temperatures and their ability to influence the prediction of hurricane strength.
Additionally, the study's contributors indicated that by improving predictions of hurricane speeds and intensities, experts can determine the necessary level of response before hurricanes occur and mitigate some of their destructive impacts.
