Ethiopia: Blinken Calls for Unconditional Peace Negotiations

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on Thursday that the conflict in Ethiopia must end and peace negotiations should begin immediately without preconditions in pursuit of a ceasefire, as fighting nears the capital, Addis Ababa. For its part, the Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed described its war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front as an "existential war" and confirmed that it would not retreat. The government stated in a statement that it is "on the verge of victory" in the year-long conflict and emphasized that it "will not collapse" under what it termed "foreign propaganda." This comes amid international calls for an immediate end to the war and a return to dialogue. The military escalation in Ethiopia is intensifying between the government army and Tigrayan forces supported by Oromo regional forces, opening a wide range of terrifying scenarios for the country. This conflict began politically in 2018 and turned into military conflict in 2020, fundamentally a dispute between ethnic groups each viewing themselves as fit to govern the country. Decisions taken by the Ethiopian government last year intensified the conflict, angering Tigray forces, which responded violently, leading Ethiopia into a war marked by massacres and heinous crimes, pushing some areas into the danger of famine. Recently, the crisis in Ethiopia has entered a new phase, with the escalating conflict threatening the capital, Addis Ababa. There are now two scenarios: The first is that Tigrayan forces continue their advance toward the capital, engaging with the allied Oromo Liberation Army, which has taken the city of Kamingi on the highway to Addis Ababa. The second option is that Tigrayan forces head towards the town of Bati and then to the city of Mille, located on the main route between Djibouti and Addis Ababa, potentially choking the capital economically and depriving it of essential supplies. In anticipation of these potential scenarios, international calls for calm are rising. In this context, the U.S. envoy to the Horn of Africa carries messages to Addis Ababa that may help find a resolution to the conflict.