There are three scenarios presented for the presidential election and the power crisis in Lebanon:
The first scenario calls for the election of a moderate figure who does not belong to the traditional camps (March 8 and March 14). If this occurs, it heralds a new phase in Lebanon, during which an agreement on demarcating borders with the Israeli enemy would be signed, and essential reforms in the country, primarily in electricity and the public sector, would begin.
The second scenario is a pessimistic one, indicating the inability to elect a president (the most likely scenario). As a consequence, Lebanon would fall into a constitutional or unconstitutional dilemma where the caretaker government led by Najib Mikati would assume the powers of the president, amidst the absence of a clear text on this matter, leading to legal interpretations driven by demand.
The third scenario lies between the two previous ones, stipulating the inability to elect a president, but simultaneously allowing for the formation of a government that gains confidence from the parliamentary council, thus delaying the election of the president becomes an agreed-upon matter among all parties. However, the problem arises from the demands of MP Gibran Bassil, whom many politicians are wary of after President Michel Aoun's term ends. Minister Gibran Bassil seeks a blocking third in the government, which is rejected by Presidents Nabih Berri and Najib Mikati, in addition to the Progressive Socialist Party, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and several new MPs.
Regardless of what happens in the future, Hezbollah remains the decisive player in the game. The head of the Progressive Socialist Party is trying to approach it to ensure the election of a centrist president—thus falling away from the equation of a strong president—an endeavor that may take time, potentially extending until the end of the president's term before consensus on a presidential name is reached.
In practice, Hezbollah has entered into mediation between Presidents Michel Aoun and Najib Mikati. Information suggests that Hezbollah is trying to find common ground between the two presidents to facilitate the formation of a government, given that they—Aoun and Mikati—are the only ones constitutionally concerned with forming the government and issuing decrees.
