A British expert has stated that the war led by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine costs approximately £15 billion daily, equivalent to $20 billion. Lawrence Freedman, described as "the dean of British strategic studies," wrote an article on a site affiliated with King's College London titled "The Reckless Adventure: Wars Rarely Go as Planned, Especially if You Believe Your Own Rhetoric." Notably, Richard Moore, the head of British intelligence "MI6," interacted with the article and re-shared it on his verified Twitter account, writing, "Impressive... seems logical to me."
Freedman argues that if Kyiv withstands for just 10 days, Russia's funds and weapons will run out. He added that the war costs the equivalent of $20 billion daily, a substantial amount for the Russian treasury. He concluded that Putin's forces will ultimately fail as they have not accurately assessed the military strength and steadfast determination of Ukraine.
The expert believes that one of the main reasons wars break out is underestimating the enemy, a sentiment that is clearly reflected in Putin's rhetoric about Ukraine, where he repeatedly claims that Ukraine is not a real country. Consequently, Putin thinks that Ukrainians will not fight to defend a non-existent entity and may believe they will welcome the Russian troops as liberators.
Freedman noted that if underestimating the enemy is combined with an exaggerated perception of one's own forces, it becomes a grave mistake. The British expert pointed out that Putin performed well in previous wars he fought, from Chechnya to Crimea. However, those wars did not rely on deploying large forces; for example, the Crimean War was fought with special forces and Moscow-aligned separatists.
He stated that one cannot rush to conclusions about the war's outcomes, but first impressions are important, as the morale of those defending their homeland is usually much higher than that of the invaders, especially if the latter are uncertain about their purpose for being there. He mentioned that the Ukrainian fight is apparent, and the casualties on both sides increase the internal risks for Putin.
