Recently, there have been discussions circulating among citizens, with remarks such as "the dollar after the elections will reach 50,000," and many are preparing by purchasing necessities in anticipation of an "upcoming skyrocketing in prices." They believe that after the elections, the government will become a caretaker one, as reforms have not been completed and the international community may not be satisfied with the election results, leading to decreased aid and further economic collapse, ultimately causing the exchange rate to soar. So, is this what awaits us after May 15?
"There is a cleverness in predictions, and people today seem more inclined to accept bad news rather than positive," says economic expert Louis Hbeika in an interview with MTV, questioning, "What do we know?!" While he argues that no one can predict if the dollar will indeed reach 50,000, he confirms that it could or could not happen; however, the core issue lies in the outcomes of the parliamentary elections. If the same political class continues or if the "children" of the country remain in power, the country will certainly regress on all financial, economic, and social levels. Conversely, the arrival of new faces could provide a glimmer of hope for the nation.
He elaborates, "I hope the elections yield new faces, but I am not optimistic. The return of the same authority to the parliament could push the dollar to 50,000 or even more." What are the expected scenarios? "The scenarios depend on the election results," Hbeika replies. "If new faces emerge, the atmosphere in the country may change, and we could see a decrease in the dollar's exchange rate. However, if the same political class is re-elected, the country will suffer deeply for the next four years, and no one will be able to predict how high the dollar could go. Forming a government will also become more difficult, making international cooperation unlikely, leading us to a significant collapse."
After the elections, Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government will become a caretaker administration, which Hbeika sees as a danger given that we have presidential elections ahead. He notes, "It is supposed to issue decrees to extend its term for three months to complete essential and urgent matters until a new president is elected and a new government is formed." He fears that we could waste six months under a caretaker government, as the country cannot afford that.
What awaits us after the elections could be worse—a real "hell," as the saying goes, unless we change the "status quo!"
Lara Abi Raef - MTV site.
