After about three and a half months of intense fighting, Russia announced its control over southeastern Ukraine and the establishment of a land connection with Crimea. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed on Tuesday that Russian forces have completely controlled the residential areas of Severodonetsk in eastern Ukraine, where violent battles have been occurring recently. Shoigu stated that Russia is sending more troops with the aim of taking full control of the city, adding, “Our forces have reinforced their positions and held on the front line.”
He confirmed that land communications from Russian territory to the Crimean Peninsula have been opened and that the conditions necessary for resuming train movement between Russia, Donbas, Ukraine, and Crimea have been prepared on six railway lines, with shipments already being delivered to Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Kherson. Military experts consider this the completion of the second phase of the war, which Russia declared at the end of March when Moscow confirmed its aim to focus its military efforts on "liberating Donbas," following the lifting of the siege around the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and intensifying its operational efforts in eastern and southern Ukraine, such as Mariupol and Kherson.
This Russian announcement about asserting control over eastern and southern regions of Ukraine raises speculation and questions about what comes next, regarding the Ukrainian and NATO responses, and whether the Russians will be content with their achievements or if there will be a new third stage. If there is one, where will the Russian army's focus turn this time after Donbas and southern Ukraine?
To answer these questions, military and strategic expert Mohannad Al-Izawi said in an interview with Sky News Arabia: “Those monitoring recent Russian military movements realize that Moscow has accurately defined its objectives after starting with vague and broad goals, consequently narrowing its bets by adopting the principle of incrementally advancing on the operational battlefield. This is based on strategic justifications and calculations, that the eastern crescent, which Russia has completed controlling after securing Severodonetsk, provides it with a developed and firm logistical base, especially after its logistics had been scattered and fragmented when the Russian army extended the war towards the cities of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv."
According to Al-Izawi, with the Russians having redefined the fronts and priorities, "they have managed to achieve clear and significant military successes by now completely controlling the Donbas region and directly linking the land route to the Crimean Peninsula, thereby completing the second phase of the Russian military operation."
In the current third phase, the military expert adds, “Following the control of Donbas, it may involve final strikes around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, as a way to gauge its response and attempt to neutralize Kyiv through intimidation and show of force, along with completing the control of the Ukrainian coastal strip for eventual negotiations, specifically targeting the cities of Odessa and Mykolaiv.”
Thus, Russia will seek, as the military expert explains, “to gain Ukrainian concessions over certain territories in its favor and to expand its maritime presence in the Black Sea area and ultimately in warm waters, thereby successfully pushing away the threat of NATO presence along its borders with Ukraine.”
Regarding the expected Western and Ukrainian responses to the Russian announcement, political researcher and writer Jamal Ariz stated in an interview with Sky News Arabia: “Kyiv is likely to reject adhering to the Russian fait accompli in the east and south of its territory, but given the imbalance in military power, it is unlikely that it will be able to regain those territories from Russian control. However, it may resort to targeting Russian military bases and headquarters there with shelling, which will likely lead to a similar Russian response and thus, we may witness an escalation of the war in the upcoming phase.”
For Western countries, Ariz states: “They may increase the pace of providing arms to Kyiv, but without directly getting involved in the war. Furthermore, the success of the Russians in controlling eastern and southern Ukraine may lead some Western countries, particularly the less rigid ones like France, to propose negotiation initiatives between Moscow and Kyiv to reach some agreements that would end the war through mutual concessions, which could result in Kyiv conceding territories like Donbas in exchange for Moscow withdrawing from southern areas, including the coastal strip.”
He concluded: “However, the grim scenario remains that both sides become obstinate and continue their battle to the bitter end, which will yield bloody and catastrophic results, as is known, affecting the entire world with devastating negative consequences on its security, stability, food sources, and energy supplies.”
