"Principle of the Nation" indicated that the revival of the current government, led by Najib Mikati, in light of the ongoing dispute with the "Free National Movement," means that the latter will not accept Mikati as the head, while the Shia duo would not oppose a proposal that was previously settled upon agreeing with Mikati on the presidency of the government. However, circumstances have changed. The majority has shifted elsewhere, and the entry of the "Change bloc" into the parliamentary scene has altered how other parliamentary blocs interact. They have become cautious in expressing their positions to avoid the risk of being outvoted. Hence, we witnessed how the older parliamentary blocs competed with the new deputies in rejecting the nomination of Nabih Berri while knowing the rules of parliamentary play and the nature of the country's sectarian composition.
On the governmental front, it is not unlikely that we will witness new alignments if a government is formed. A quick review by one of its members suggests that the loss of the March 8 Forces of the majority has relieved them and lightened their burden of confrontation and responsibility in the most difficult circumstances the country is currently facing. Based on this consideration, they will not oppose the nomination of a prime minister suggested by the new majority. Being in the opposition is comfortable, especially considering that the remaining lifespan of the current presidency is only a few months, during which the "Free National Movement" will not find a need to negotiate or trade alternatives.
The question of whether the "Movement" could be outside the government is debatable. Just as in the presidency of the government, is the election of the president still a priority? Logically, these forces want someone to relieve their burdens, and they will not oppose any candidate mutually agreed upon as long as it aligns with their interests. They will certainly not accept a provocative candidate but will not oppose someone like Army Commander Joseph Aoun, even if his candidacy is endorsed by the Americans.
Perhaps it is best for everyone if the man of the moment is better than any other candidate. The election of the president may come during a socially volatile period that has been developing for some time and is a candidate for an explosion due to the skyrocketing price of the dollar, alongside a political situation likely to exacerbate, making foreign intervention inevitable and necessary.
If France, emerging from recent presidential elections and preparing for legislative elections, will have its eyes on Lebanon in the coming months, according to those knowledgeable about Franco-Lebanese relations, it is through organizing a comprehensive dialogue conference led by President Emmanuel Macron during his anticipated visit to Lebanon at the end of this year. All of this is contingent on international developments, regional dynamics, and the war in Ukraine. However, until then, Lebanon is expected to face successive crises, which it is hoped will not translate into security clashes or similar issues.
