Firas Badra, the chairman of Golden Grain, said in an interview with "Al Arabiya" that Russia and Ukraine are among the largest wheat exporters in the world, emphasizing that the escalation of the crisis between the two countries has significant impacts on global markets. Badra explained that there are three effects: one logistical, another related to potential sanctions on markets, and how global markets respond to the repercussions. He noted that Russia has thus far been insulated from these events, while the most significant impact has been on the Ukrainian side, especially in the eastern regions experiencing conflict.
Badra mentioned that Ukraine produces 28 million tons of wheat, of which 4 million tons are feed wheat and 24 million tons are for milling, consuming 6 million tons and exporting 18 million tons annually. "Some Arab countries will be affected, especially Egypt, which imports 3 million tons from Ukraine. Lebanon also imports 50% of its wheat from Ukraine, as do Libya and Yemen, in addition to Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and China," according to Badra.
On the other hand, he confirmed that sanctions could target Russian wheat exports, but there may be ways to circumvent these sanctions to maintain exports as they are. Badra highlighted logistical effects, which include rising transportation and shipping costs, especially with oil prices reaching $100, alongside increased risk costs in the region.
"The cost of wheat imports in Egypt could rise from $3.2 billion to $4 billion, an increase of $800 million, and some countries cannot bear the potential increases, like Lebanon, which imports 50% of its wheat from Ukraine." Regarding alternative sources for wheat imports, he stated that there are alternatives available in the European Union, Australia, the United States, and Argentina, adding that "resorting to these alternatives carries additional costs."
