"We are ready after the elections to sit with the Free Patriotic Movement, open all files, and begin a new phase." This was the statement of the head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Franjieh, just three days before the parliamentary elections. The electoral page has turned, along with the other essentials like the election of a vice president, heads of parliamentary committees, and the naming of a prime minister, yet nothing has materialized from the pre-election discussions. The signals indicating the likelihood of the two bitter allies of Hezbollah sitting at the same table remain off and are likely to continue fading.
The only direct meeting between the leaders of the two movements, Franjieh and Bassil, occurred during a lunch hosted by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. However, aside from the timing of this meeting—which took place just before the final countdown to the parliamentary elections—everything discussed regarding presidential and parliamentary understandings seemed to be mere newspaper talk. According to sources from Marada, the meeting's purpose was to "break the ice and put an end to a long period of political animosity between Zgharta and Mirna al-Chalouhi."
In the elections, the effects of this meeting were somewhat evident despite the confrontations in most districts between the two sides. This was expected since Hezbollah did not raise its finger against the allies nor did it offer them unity in the electoral battle. Essentially, there was an attempt to minimize losses and manage the confrontation between the two opposing allies in several shared districts, particularly in the third northern district, against the Lebanese Forces' list, and to firmly oppose the War and Mueed agreement.
However, the ground realities did not align with the aspirations from the iftar; Bassil achieved only one seat while Marada's outcome was limited to one seat instead of the three that was anticipated. Post-election signals suggested to some that there could be potential rapprochement between the presidential candidates, "but nothing has changed politically. To be clearer, we are still in the same place." The political fluctuations witnessed in the relationship between the two movements at various political junctures, especially after the recent presidential elections that brought President Michel Aoun to Baabda Palace, reached a point of severance before the ice-breaking meeting occurred.
Is another iftar needed, non-Ramadan, to break the ice at the threshold of the presidential election? It is clear that neither side is willing to make a concession step at this stage where all cards have been revealed. The positions and options of Marada regarding internal issues have not changed, and the same applies to the Free Patriotic Movement. When it comes to Bassil's ambitions, which wholly revolve around the Baabda chair, the discourse shifts. "Gibran Bassil’s project is confined to the presidency, and he engages in political affairs under this ceiling alone."
Does this imply that Franjieh has refrained from entering the presidential battle? "Not at all, but there is a deep chasm between the two projects." Marada sources add that "our presidential project is consensual, while their project can be summed up in one phrase: power. From forest wardens to maritime border demarcation. Beyond that, we maintain good relations with all Sunni, Christian, and Druze political parties, and we also connect with the new Sunni moderation, forming a point of convergence with everyone, including the Kataeb Party, after putting the dark history behind us, while political options are definitely different. The Free Patriotic Movement, specifically its leader, is in conflict with everyone. Let them name a single accomplishment during their time in power. Zero achievements. In fact, it has led to the collapse of all institutions and the foundations of the country."
Sources from Marada do not hide the sensitivity of the current stage amid regional conflicts and emphasize the need to find a joint project among all Christian political forces to counter the demographic decline, as "we have turned into a bread and butter project, with the utmost ambition of our youth being to emigrate." However, despite recognizing the seriousness and sensitivity of the situation, the only barrier to creating a map of convergence between the two movements stands at Baabda. What breaks through that barrier is "the Free Patriotic Movement’s support for us in the presidential election, and nothing else," conclude Marada sources.
