The crime that occurred in the southern town of Dweir at the beginning of the week, resulting in the deaths of two individuals and injuries to five others—one of whom is in critical condition—has brought security issues back to the forefront, amidst deteriorating social conditions and rampant weapons that authorities seem unable to control. While the incident in Dweir was due to personal disputes between members of two families, the ease with which the killer directed his weapon at someone trying to mediate the situation, firing seven shots into his abdomen, raises fears of dramatic developments.
Despite the ongoing financial crisis for the past two years affecting all sectors and aspects of life in Lebanon, security forces have largely succeeded in maintaining order. Retired Brigadier General Dr. Hicham Jaber, head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, stated that the crime in Dweir is unusual for the south and is undoubtedly a result of the pressures Lebanese individuals face and the anger that accompanies their daily lives, leading to abnormal reactions. He believes that “despite this, the security situation remains controlled and the social situation intact.” Jaber mentioned in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that “the maintained situation, despite the social collapse, is an achievement for the Lebanese security forces, which manage to identify the perpetrators of nine out of ten crimes, whereas this number is only six in European countries.” He pointed out that intelligence agencies are “performing excellently, especially after resuming coordination among them.”
Jaber does not rule out the possibility of “security incidents and crimes increasing like a snowball if the economic and living conditions remain as they are, with rising thefts and an increase in highway robberies” but reassured that “there is no widespread security collapse or explosion.” On her part, Dr. Mona Fayyad, a psychology professor and political activist, predicts that “collapses will continue on all fronts, while authorities do not take any measures to halt this decline, with the price of a gasoline canister reaching unprecedented levels, in addition to fears of bread shortages.” Fayyad stated in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that all possibilities remain likely regarding worsening circumstances, especially under the tough economic conditions faced by security personnel.
The head of the Middle East and Gulf Center for Military Analysis, Riyadh Kahwaji, describes the situation as “unruly,” asserting that “security forces cannot disarm citizens due to the refusal of political leaders who protect many gangs that practice extortion and engage in smuggling and illegal activities.” Kahwaji added in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat: “Most of these armed gangs exist with the knowledge of security authorities, which cannot approach them for fear of political repercussions. Ultimately, security by consent is a big deception that undermines the authority and seriousness of the rule of law. Illegal weapons pose the greatest danger to civil peace in Lebanon, regardless of the justifications for their existence.”
Recently, the International Information Company reported, based on the Internal Security Forces’ reports, that “security indicators recorded a slight increase during the first five months of this year compared to the same period in 2021; car thefts increased by 3.2%, murders by 9%, and theft incidents by 1.2%, while suicide cases decreased by 7.7%.” It highlighted a comparison between May 2021 and May 2022, showing a 19% rise in car thefts, a 20% increase in murders, while thefts reduced by 33% and suicides by 38.5%.
Lebanon hopes this summer for the arrival of over a million tourists to inject about four billion dollars into its ailing economy, and any security jolt could lead to catastrophic developments in this regard. Lebanese security sources affirm that “the security situation is under control, and while some crimes and incidents occur here and there, the speed in pursuing offenders and bringing them to justice is unprecedented,” stressing in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the success of security forces in maintaining stability over the past two years, despite all the challenges, is akin to a security miracle, not just an achievement.”
