A preliminary major analysis regarding COVID-19 vaccines has revealed that the vaccines contributed to a reduction in global deaths caused by the virus by 20 million in the first year after their availability. The study, which modeled disease spread in 185 countries and regions between December 2020 and December 2021, found that without COVID-19 vaccines, the pandemic could have claimed 31.4 million lives, and that 19.8 million of these deaths were avoided.
This study is the first attempt to quantify the number of deaths prevented directly and indirectly as a result of COVID-19 vaccinations, according to the British newspaper The Guardian. The paper reported that the study's lead author, Oliver Watson from Imperial College London, stated, "More deaths could have been prevented if access to vaccines had been more equitable worldwide."
He added that the research indicated that nearly 600,000 additional deaths—one in every five COVID deaths in low-income countries—could have been avoided if the World Health Organization's global target of vaccinating 40% of each country’s population by the end of 2021 had been achieved.
Watson continued, "Our findings show that millions of lives have likely been saved by providing vaccines to people everywhere, regardless of their wealth... However, more could have been done." He noted that while vaccine provision worldwide remains vital, especially for high-risk individuals, many parts of the world with low vaccination coverage have seen high levels of immunity due to prior infections, suggesting that the opportunity to save lives has narrowed.
Since the first COVID vaccine was administered outside of clinical trials on December 8, 2020, nearly two-thirds of the global population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. The global COVID-19 vaccine access initiative, COVAX, has facilitated access to affordable vaccines for low-income countries in an effort to mitigate disparities.
The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, utilized official figures, or estimates when official data was not available, for COVID-19 deaths, as well as total excess deaths from each country. Excess deaths refer to the difference between the total number of people who died from all causes and the expected deaths based on previous data, and in many countries, these figures provide a more reliable picture of COVID deaths.
The numbers may represent an upper limit on the number of deaths avoided in the absence of vaccines, as policies related to lockdowns, for example, would have varied. Professor Azra Ghani, head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London, stated, "Our study highlights the enormous benefit of vaccines in reducing COVID-19 deaths globally. While the intense focus on the pandemic has shifted now, it is crucial to ensure that the most vulnerable people worldwide are protected from the ongoing circulation of COVID-19 and from other major diseases that continue to disproportionately affect the poorest."
