Under the title "The Policy of the Brink: Iraqi Factions Seek to Reap the Fruits of Escalation," the Al-Arabiya website reported that the attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi yesterday through an attack on his home with explosive drones has once again highlighted the armed factions and their departure from the legal frameworks governing all movements and parties within the state's institutions, especially after accusations of their involvement emerged. Analysts noted that the targeting of Al-Kadhimi early Sunday signaled the determination of Iran-aligned factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces, dissatisfied with the results of the parliamentary elections held on October 10, to send a clear message to the Prime Minister: they will not be complacent and will not accept his return to the office, especially since Al-Kadhimi's name is among the prominent candidates in government formation discussions.
### A Warning Message?
In this context, many analysts considered the attack more of a warning message to Al-Kadhimi, who is seeking a second term, than an assassination attempt. Renad Mansour, head of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, was quoted by The New York Times, saying: "We have seen similar events in the past through the use of violence, but not necessarily for assassination, rather as a warning and intimidation."
### A Policy of the Brink
Meanwhile, the head of the Political Thinking Center, Ihsan Al-Shammari, observed that the escalation that occurred over the past two days around the Green Zone is a result of the Iran-aligned factions' pursuit of a "policy of the brink to gain further advantages" in the formation of the upcoming government. It is noteworthy that since the release of the preliminary results, Iranian-aligned forces have expressed their total rejection of the outcomes, especially after the Fatah Alliance, which represents the Popular Mobilization Forces, suffered a significant loss by losing a third of its MPs, with prominent figures from the alliance repeatedly denouncing the results and calling for a complete recount of the votes.
### Causes of the Embarrassing Defeat
Experts viewed this embarrassing result for the Fatah Alliance and the Popular Mobilization Forces, which entered Parliament for the first time in 2018, driven by what they considered "military victories" achieved alongside government troops against ISIS, as indicative of their failure to meet their voters' aspirations. Many, according to Agence France-Presse, confirmed that the main reasons for the public's disaffection with voting for Fatah and the Mobilization Forces stemmed from the violence and repressive practices attributed to the Iran-aligned factions within the Mobilization Forces, which consists of about 160,000 fighters. The preliminary results of the parliamentary elections held on October 10, 2021, indicated that the Sadrist Movement, led by prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, obtained more than 70 seats, once again making it the largest bloc in Parliament, albeit without a majority. This means that a strong card is now in Sadr's hands, but it does not give him the ability to form the next government alone!
