So far, it appears that Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri is the most enthusiastic about bringing Najib Mikati back to the government palace for reasons that go beyond the name of the appointee to the conditions of the appointment. Many believe that the decrees will not be accompanied by the appointment decrees. The Shia duo seems to be the most convinced that the presidential election will take place on time without prior vacancy at the Baabda Palace, similar to what happened after the term of President Michel Sleiman ended. Therefore, there is no need, or rather there is no time, to engage in consultations for formation that may require a magic wand to conclude in a limited timeframe!
In accordance with Berri's position, Hezbollah is expected to be in line with him on the appointment file to re-nominate Mikati as head of the "few weeks' government," contrary to the desires of his ally, Jibran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, who is prepared to endorse any Sunni candidate except for Mikati due to the differences between them regarding the nature and components of the government. Bassil has announced on several occasions his desire to push for the formation of a political government, or at least a technopolitical one, which is a fundamental condition that distances Mikati from Bassil.
It appears that the Shia duo's stance also stems from the new reality imposed by the ballots in the Sunni arena following the suspension of political work by Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, which has experienced fragmentation and dispersion, potentially causing its position within the constitutional framework to weaken, particularly in the premiership after losing a clear direction in leadership and unified opinion. Likely, this consideration compels the Shia duo to vote for Mikati, who has the support of the French administration and the backing of a significant number of Sunni deputies, especially those who revolve around—or rather used to revolve around—political Harirism, as a means to cut off any potential revolutionary scenarios that may sneak through the surreal circumstances surrounding the Sunni area, making any Sunni a potential candidate for the premiership in light of the existing divergences among parliamentary blocs regarding the governmental entitlement.
The two members of the "Progress" bloc, Mark Daw and Najat Aoun, have announced their support for former ambassador Nawaf Salam for the premiership, which the Free Patriotic Movement had previously hinted at in the last governmental entitlement, suggesting that Salam's nomination could turn into serious momentum, similar to what happened with Ghassan Skaff's nomination for the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, making him a serious competitor to Mikati. Thus, it is believed among the Shia duo that delaying the governmental entitlement until the last moments could open the door to unexpected scenarios that might change the entire governmental scene and lead it to unanticipated places.
In this context, it is rumored that Saudi ambassador Walid Bukhari is trying to energize the governmental entitlement by pushing for the nomination of a figure who could gain acceptance from several political forces, including the "Forces" and the "Progressive Socialist Party," and some independent deputies, in an attempt to impose a serious battle that could disrupt agreements at the last moments.
In this regard, some believe that the hours leading up to the scheduled binding consultations will witness a series of cross-political consultations that could remove the lingering ambiguity surrounding this file, given that final positions have not yet been declared and remain subject to back-and-forth exchanges and potential nominations.
Nevertheless, the possibility of postponing the binding consultations for further political discussions does not seem likely or probable. This means that Thursday will see one of two possibilities:
- Mikati is tasked with forming the government regardless of the vote count he will receive and regardless of the abstention of the two largest Christian blocs, namely the "Free Patriotic Movement" and the "Forces," from voting for him. However, the formation has many obstacles, and it is likely that renovating or "beautifying" the government to some extent may be the least difficult and most feasible option, especially if the coming weeks improve the prospects for a timely presidential entitlement.
- The adoption of a competitive nomination by opposing forces could overturn calculations, which may push Mikati to resign before formation. It is known that several names have been proposed in this context and have not yet succeeded in securing an agreement, with communications ongoing between Maarab, the Chouf, and the independent deputies, including the group of 13, to agree on a unified candidate, which is a prerequisite for entering this battle at least from the side of the "Progressive Party," which seems uninterested in making any concessional moves toward Mikati, particularly since the Chouf has imposed itself as a necessary passage for Druze representation.
