Amid the sharp political divide surrounding impending constitutional deadlines, the country appears to be heading towards a different kind of confrontation centered around interpretations, opinions, and constitutional violations. This issue is not only connected to a battle over powers but also to how to manage the country in the event of a presidential vacancy, especially since everyone is behaving as if presidential elections may not occur on time, making the discussion about who governs during the transitional period the main focus.
Essentially, the renewed discussion about forming a government is fundamentally tied to fears of a significant split over priorities, particularly since President Michel Aoun, along with the Free Patriotic Movement and others, accuses the opposing team composed openly of Presidents Nabih Berri and Najib Miqati and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt of attempting to impose a reality defined by granting the caretaker government constitutional powers that would allow it to lead the country. According to sources, this team is practically seeking support from external forces, as communications from foreign capitals—ranging from Saudi Arabia and France to the European Union and the United States—indicate that all these entities are focusing on the presidential file, discussing the qualifications or names of potential presidential candidates while completely disregarding the necessary establishment of a fully qualified government at present.
Concerned parties note that the internal forces opposing the formation of a balanced government benefit from this external climate. However, they indicate that this situation could lead to uncalculated confrontations. Generally, among Christian circles, including in Bkerke, as well as other forces and figures, there is a prevailing sentiment that public powers should not be relinquished by granting the caretaker government the powers of the presidency, and that accepting this position would strike a new blow to the Taif Agreement and create further problems among Lebanese.
In this context, it appears that everyone is deliberating on the steps that should be taken now to prevent falling into a forbidden scenario. Sources highlight that Presidents Berri and Miqati have approached officials and ministers indicating that they have constitutional edicts asserting the possibility of granting the caretaker government the authority to function as a fully qualified government in the event of a presidential vacancy. However, Berri and Miqati have been informed by their visitors that the game of decrees and constitutional interpretations does not reside in a single field, and bypassing the constitution would lead others to seek similar steps. Strong rumors indicate that there are significant forces within the Christian community advocating for a fundamental option that entails President Aoun remaining in his position until a fully qualified government is formed or a new president is elected.
Sources close to the presidential palace confirmed that President Aoun is not interested in remaining in Baabda after his term ends, and he has informed all concerned parties of this choice. Nonetheless, the sources stated that alternative options may be open concerning matters other than the idea of staying in the palace, indicating that discussions are taking place regarding alternative options. They added that if the opposite team decides to violate the constitution by granting the caretaker government the status capable of acting in the place of the president, President Aoun has two options: the first is to annul the mandate given to Miqati and invite the parliament to new consultations, leading to the selection of another prime minister capable of forming a government quickly; the second is to explore ways to enable the president to establish an alternative government to manage the country in the event of a presidential vacancy.
Although the same sources acknowledge that these actions "may be questioned regarding their constitutionality by other parties, it is unacceptable to remain silent about a blatant constitutional violation being committed by the other party." The sources stated that "the only realistic solution at any moment is for the designated president to engage in a practical and fruitful discussion with the president to form a new government during the remaining days before September 1."
