After long weeks of discussions, negotiations, and tug-of-war, the electoral alliance was finalized between the "National Movement" led by MP Jibran Bassil and the "Shiite Duo" (Amal Movement and Hezbollah) across all electoral districts in Lebanese provinces, except for the southern districts, specifically in the first southern district which includes Saida and Jezzine, and the third southern district which includes Bint Jbeil, Nabatiyeh, Marjeyoun, and Hasbaya, both of which witnessed competition in the last elections.
About seven parliamentary seats are affected by the "National Movement"- "Shiite Duo" alliance, most notably one of the Christian seats in Beirut II and the Shiite seat in Jbeil, in addition to Christian seats in Baabda, North Bekaa, West Bekaa, Zahle, and the third southern district.
After intense back-and-forth between "Amal," led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and the "National Movement" in the past period, which escalated significantly in December, it became evident about a month and a half ago that there were clear party instructions from both sides to their MPs and supporters to stop the rhetoric as negotiations for the electoral alliance commenced.
Bassil recently attempted to respond to critics of his alliance with "Amal," acknowledging that "alliances secure electoral gains"; however, he added, "in the end, with the preferential vote, everyone selects their MPs; their people bring in their MPs, and our people bring in our MPs." He remarked, "It is true we are on the same train; but each of us is in a separate compartment, and along the way, each of us has his window and view. When we reach the station, everyone goes their own way." This response did not convince many of the supporters and leadership of "the Movement," who have long accused "Amal" of being the "head of the system" they are fighting against; similarly, many supporters of "Amal" did not agree to electing with "the National Movement," which they consider a "deadly enemy" politically.
Sources close to "Amal" acknowledged that "work is still underway to convince (the base) of the importance of this alliance and its valid reasons, done through educational and dialogue sessions," pointing out in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that "the main problem they face is convincing their audience in Baabda, where the situation is particularly sensitive regarding nominations unlike other districts."
For his part, MP Alan Aoun of the "Strong Lebanon" bloc responded to whether they have an electoral interest solely in the alliance with the "Shiite Duo" or if it is also a political interest by saying: "The alliance with the duo cannot be separated, as they are one body in two blocs; especially electorally. Therefore, it cannot be dealt with separately. The alliance is primarily electoral due to legal considerations regarding gains that require the presence of more than one team on the same list, without preventing the convergence on other political issues."
Aoun emphasized in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that "the Movement is no longer part of any majority automatically and will form its bloc, interacting with all parties individually in the upcoming phase." In response to a question about whether they find it difficult to convince their audience about the alliance with "Amal," Aoun does not deny that "political disputes and differences on several occasions and issues have affected the audience of the National Movement; however, (the audience) has understood the electoral and political considerations that call for this choice at a moment when the Movement is targeted and isolated."
Election expert Rabi Hibra believes that it cannot be generalized that the alliance between "the National Movement" and "the Shiite Duo" is solely an electoral interest for the former; otherwise, why would the Amal Movement agree to the alliance? He noted in a statement to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that the alliance with "the National Movement" is an interest for "the Duo" if it had occurred in the first southern district (Saida-Jezine), as it serves its interests in Mount Lebanon I, specifically in Jbeil. Conversely, the electoral alliance with "the Duo" is advantageous for "the Movement" in the other districts where both parties are present, especially in Zahle, for instance, where the Movement cannot secure a seat without "the Duo," just as in Baalbek-Hermel.
