With the call of the Speaker of the House Nabih Berri for a general session on the 14th, 15th, and 16th of this month to study and approve the budget for the year 2022, and in light of this session convening and hopefully passing, it is expected that he will call for a session to elect a President of the Republic, transforming the assembly into an electoral body until the task is completed. Berri had promised diplomats and the Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi to issue this call early in September, most likely between the 5th and 7th; however, the groundwork for the election has not been prepared, both internally due to a lack of consensus and externally due to new complexities surrounding the nuclear file and their direct implications for Lebanon and its presidential file.
In light of the above, and because there is no agreement on the identity of the upcoming president, President Berri has opened channels of communication with allied and moderate forces, primarily with Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and Hezbollah, with plans to later engage with a Christian component, possibly the "Free Patriotic Movement" or "Lebanese Forces." If this is not feasible as expected, Berri could engage with Bkirki, similar to what occurred during the days of Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, to select a unifying presidential candidate, as mentioned by sources close to Berri, since there is no room for a president of challenge and provocation in the current era.
The specifications defined by the Speaker of the House have ruled out many names circulating among potential candidates, narrowing it down to a maximum of three, which have not been disclosed while awaiting clarification of the obscured picture and maturation of the external situation, which would warrant the blessing of a settlement president to be conveyed by Berri to him and the political forces and deputies who must translate it into votes.
Well-informed political sources confirm to "Al-Markaziya" that there is no room for a president imposed by a political team, similar to the scenario of electing President Michel Aoun. They clarify that the party seeks to secure some gains for its ally, MP Gibran Bassil, who has slim chances of presidency. After Bassil's chances and those of Marada Movement head Sleiman Frangieh diminish, Bassil will be included in the list of president-makers, as he himself mentioned in one of his media interviews. This way, the party maintains its alliance with the "Movement," ensuring continued Christian cover for its project, preventing a renewed alliance between the Movement and the Forces, and obstructing any possibility of a sovereign president, as described by the opposing party.
They add that the unprecedented and gradual escalation from the presidency and its movement is intended as a scare tactic; even if no president close to them is elected, with the privileges granted to him by Hezbollah, he will be prevented from opening any file related to the presidency. Sources strongly favor the hypothesis of a presidential vacuum, urging President Berri to take action from his position at the head of the legislative authority, aiming to prevent President Michel Aoun from remaining at the Baabda Palace after October 31 if attempts to form a new government fail, to avoid a Sunni-Maronite conflict where Prime Minister Najib Mikati may become the spearhead, leading to undesirable consequences.
