Presidential vacancy is now imminent. The country has entered the constitutional deadline that allows the full assembly of parliament to convene and elect a new president to succeed Michel Aoun. However, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri is currently diverting focus from the presidential election to legislative affairs, having called for a general session on September 14, 15, and 16 to study and approve the budget for 2022. Thus, political forces are treating the deadline of October 31 as open to scenarios, the best of which is still bleak, returning the scene of vacancy to Baabda Palace amid constitutional debates, particularly led by the Aounists regarding the ability of the caretaker government to inherit the powers of the presidency.
All statements and hints from the President and the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" Gebran Bassil indicate that this team will strive to encircle the caretaker government in the event that avenues for forming a new government are blocked. They aim to push it into a comprehensive opposition to paralyze the already constitutionally limited government and obstruct its ministers' work.
Some argue that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati may fall into the trap he set for the Aounist team, where he will find himself alone in a hellish situation, catching the ball of collapse that will intensify in the time of presidential vacancy and the paralysis that will consume the institutions.
They explain that Mikati was betting on some international "oxygen" to revive his government economically, which could enhance his political presence and position him as the sole candidate to head the first government of the new term. However, the Ukrainian war turned the tables upside down. The French are preoccupied with their own issues. There is no completed agreement with the IMF, Egyptian gas has not arrived in Lebanese manufacturing plants, Jordanian electricity is unavailable, and there is no agreement on a recovery plan with all its financial and economic implications... In fact, it is the same chaos that has threatened Lebanese stability since the onset of the crisis, likely leading to further deterioration and explosion.
It was widely believed, particularly between Berri and Mikati, that the Aounist team would yield to the Prime Minister's conditions, thus Mikati played a waiting game until September 1, when Berri would take the lead in the presidential battle, if only politically, to thwart the plan for forming a new government.
However, President Michel Aoun remains the same Major General Michel Aoun. Breaking him is not easy. He revealed in an interview yesterday his explicit desire "to add six political ministers to the current government to grant it political immunity which is very necessary to face the possibility of vacancy, as a purely technocratic government as it stands now is unable to assume the duties of the presidency." He mentioned that the Prime Minister had informed him of his agreement to include political appointments in the government before he reversed his decision at Berri’s request.
Supporters of the idea of politically expanding the government argue that handing over presidential powers to a caretaker government would set a constitutional precedent that could open the door to sectarian problems in the country with dire consequences. According to them, this government lacks legitimacy, having gained confidence from a parliament that no longer exists, and the powers of the presidency conceded in the National Accord Document meant to represent the Christian presidency suffer from a fundamental flaw, as it is impossible to control the technocratic ministers representing the presidency, unlike the representation of the Sunni and Shiite components. Hence, they demand direct political partnership.
Therefore, they assert that President Aoun's exit from the palace "on a problem" will lead him to settle scores with his opponents in the streets, throwing the whole ball of fire into Mikati's lap by transitioning to fierce opposition and blocking any resolution or temporary fixes that Mikati might attempt, considering that the crisis has reached dangerous outcomes.
According to them, the main theme of the Aounists' campaign in the streets will be to address the trio of Nabih Berri, Najib Mikati, and Walid Jumblatt's hold on the government, especially since the Speaker promotes the idea of not repeating the experience of the "Government of Presidents" chaired by Tammam Salam during the last presidential vacancy, meaning he seeks to prevent a scenario where all ministers must sign decrees, instead settling for the signatures of the Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance, and the relevant minister. This is a possibility that the Aounist team will not accept and will make it their issue in the forthcoming period.
Consequently, observers indicate that Mikati feels the heat of the situation, especially if matters deteriorate further, while the chances of completing the presidential election on time decrease day by day. Therefore, he seeks to activate opportunities for government formation by revitalizing his cabinet. However, without achieving this, under the conditions of President Aoun, it has become clear that his plan to corner him in "your house" did not work, and he remains firm in his stance: political supplementation... or else let the structure collapse over everyone’s heads.
