Three days remain until the mandatory parliamentary consultations to nominate the President responsible for forming the new government, which the majority involved in the negotiations agree will be a "government of vacancy" that will prevail after President Michel Aoun’s term ends. Accordingly, it has become evident from the intense discussions among political forces and the "Change" and "Independent" MPs that the focus is not on finding a "risky" candidate willing to take on the mission, but rather on mapping out the distribution of shares and portfolios that would allow each party to solidify its influence in the upcoming phase.
Recent days have shown a level of impasse that has reached the point of impossibility in finding a consensus candidate among the parliamentary blocs (whether allies or adversaries), which has heightened the prospects for President Najib Mikati once again. This is further reinforced by several factors:
- The "Change" MPs have so far failed to nominate a consensus figure while independent MPs remain divided over Mikati.
- Divergence in the approach between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement. The former considers Mikati's assignment as a matter of necessity, believing there is no need to initiate a governmental battle over a cabinet that will only last a few months. It is noteworthy that "nominating him on Thursday is still under consideration," according to informed sources. Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri still favors Mikati's return, weighing it from two angles: initiating a battle over a new name could delay the formation of the government until after the presidential elections, and not granting the Aounists what they want—namely, the exclusion of Mikati.
The Movement, which has struggled to promote several names it proposed, asserts through its sources that the direction on Thursday is "not to nominate."
Some circles have noted the position of the Progressive Socialist Party, whose affiliates are trying to suggest that nominating Mikati is "not an option" and that participation in the government is not certain. This is based on what head of the "Democratic Gathering" bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt, said during meetings last Saturday at the Mukhtara Palace, asserting that “the painful reality needs a reformist president and a reformist government,” implying he does not refer to Mikati. However, informed sources indicated that "President Berri continues to consult with Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, who has not yet determined his position."
The ongoing consultations between the "Socialist" and "Forces" Party focus on how to organize a settlement with the Prime Minister, provided it is in opposition to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Bassil. All meetings between the two parties do not discuss a plan or a program for the upcoming president, nor do they assess his ability to reconcile between the political blocs to implement projects requiring political consensus, primarily in electricity, depositor rights, and the internationally and domestically required reform laws to restructure the Central Bank and banks. Instead, the emphasis is on seeking a president who represents a political project opposed to what President Aoun represented over the past six years.
Therefore, discussions yesterday between representatives from the "Socialist" and "Forces" revolved around who embodies their project best, and they found no one better than Mikati ( tentatively) to appoint for this role. According to informed sources, the "Socialist" is leaning more toward Mikati, awaiting the "Forces'" agreement to support him, while they too are still considering this possibility without incurring losses at the popular level, and more crucially, the political and governmental price they would gain in exchange for the nomination, ensuring that the profit comes at Bassil's expense, especially since Samir Geagea refused to join the previous government under the pretext of not participating with the ruling forces. Thus, entering this time with the same political forces would expose the extent of his claims.
