The fifth meeting between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati did not yield any tangible results to set the formation of the upcoming government on a path that leads to its emergence. However, with the start of the constitutional period for the presidential election, the issue of government formation will take precedence over other matters and will be under intense scrutiny. A source following developments along the Baabda-Sereil line noted that there has been a rapprochement between Hezbollah and the Western nations concerned with the Lebanese file to push for a new government, adding through "Akhbar Al-Yawm" agency that when these two sides agree on something, it sees the light.
The source believes that the West wants stability in Lebanon while awaiting the demarcation of borders and securing the presidential election, which is unlikely to occur on time but is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Moreover, Hezbollah is monitoring the developments of the Vienna negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear file, which will reorder priorities in the region.
This comes in conjunction with statements from the White House yesterday that “the U.S. administration is trying to narrow the gap between Israel and Lebanon regarding maritime border demarcation,” and thus “reach a possible agreement,” alongside Mikati’s efforts in light of signals that have come from some Arab and Western countries.
The source points out that Mikati is working in a rhythm: the Arab countries advocating for stability and moving away from axes, and President Nabih Berri who stated during the commemoration of Imam Musa al-Sadr’s disappearance last night, “What is not permissible at all is to surrender to some malicious wills striving diligently and tirelessly to drag the country and its institutions into a whirlpool of vacuum.”
Based on the above, the source expects that signals favoring government formation will emerge, requiring the Prime Minister-designate to make concessions that preserve his dignity and do not constitute a defeat for Aoun just days before the end of his term. From here, the source predicts that the government will be formed in September.
Regarding the shape of this government, the source considers that the solution may involve invigorating the current government to qualify for inheriting the president’s powers, whether through signing decrees in an identical format to the current government and seeking the confidence of the parliament, noting that the blocking third exists in the current structure, or by replacing some names in a way that reassures Aoun and the role of MP Gebran Bassil in the next phase. However, in any case, the addition of six ministers has been set aside, and the format will remain as a 24-minister government. Therefore, replacing Minister of Economy Amin Salam with a minister from Mikati's share will not happen without gaining another portfolio.
Regarding Berri’s stance, who raised his ceiling yesterday against Aoun’s team, the source concludes that Berri’s interest lies in forming the government to avoid significant pressure in the presidential file. He understands that the presidential vacuum is a reality but it won’t be long, and during this time, Aoun’s influence must be kept to a minimum.
