In reflection of all the financial and political crises that politicians have yet to find appropriate solutions for, the exchange rate of the dollar continues its soaring rise, breaking the artificial barriers that were temporarily placed to restrict it. Yesterday, it surpassed the threshold of 34,000 Lebanese Lira, marking a new record in the history of the black market in Lebanon, before retreating by 550 Lira to 33,450 Lira in the evening.
The rapid daily jumps in the green currency, which have reached a percentage increase of 27% since the conclusion of the parliamentary elections approximately nine days ago, are attributed to well-known reasons including a shortage of the local currency, the prevailing political uncertainty, a reduction in the Central Bank's injection of significant amounts of dollars into the market, in addition to a primary reason: the scaling back of "Sayrafa" operations. This comes despite the Central Bank's announcement to extend the implementation of Circular No. 161, which allows withdrawals of deposits in U.S. dollars at the Sayrafa rate, until July, with the possibility of renewal.
According to banks, the decline in "Sayrafa" performance is due to a reduction in the "banks' quota" with the Central Bank to 10,000 dollars, then to 2,000 dollars daily. This has led to the inability of all individuals with personal accounts to withdraw according to Circular 161, with some banks publicly announcing the restriction of withdrawals solely to public sector employees. Other banks still permit withdrawals for personal accounts, but limitedly, only through ATMs during a brief morning period not exceeding an hour, leaving the fortunate to withdraw their dollar deposits at the Sayrafa rate, which has seen the gap widen by more than 9,000 Lira compared to the black market.
Economic expert Patrick Mardini remarked during a conversation with "Nidaa Al-Watan" that this meteoric rise in the dollar's exchange rate was expected based on the facts. He said, "The natural trend of the dollar is upward, and the Lira is facing collapse due to the lack of an economy to support the local currency. Growth is negative, and the economy is contracting; thus, there is no confidence in the Lira, and demand for the dollar is increasing."
He pointed out that "the stabilization of the exchange rate before the elections was an unnatural and unsustainable situation supported by the Central Bank through the injection of dollars via Sayrafa and Circular 161, which accelerates the loss of dollars in reserves, thereby reducing coverage of the Lebanese Lira." He indicated that "an agreement with the IMF and commitment to it would provide a certain degree of stability, but without a government or amid rising doubts regarding the possibility of forming a new government due to political factors, the collapse of the Lira will increase and the rush to buy dollars will exacerbate."
Coinciding with the rise in the dollar's price, there are significant price increases in supermarket price tags, which exacerbates poverty and threatens the food security of Lebanese citizens, as well as their pharmaceutical and health security. Hani Bahsali, head of the Association of Food Importers, warned that "the food reality in Lebanon has not seen any improvement in two months; rather, it has worsened due to the war in Ukraine and turmoil in global markets, along with the return of the dollar exchange rate to rise in the local market, not to mention the difficulties the Central Bank faces in funding basic consumer goods like wheat and gasoline." He cautioned that "unforeseen factors are beginning to powerfully pressure the food security of Lebanese citizens, as indicated by the continuous rise in the dollar's exchange rate, which will inevitably lead to a decline in the purchasing power of the national currency and consequently to an increase in the prices of all goods, including food items."
