A number of scientists have identified "two essential conditions" that must be met for the coronavirus to become less dangerous in the long run, especially as its ability to mutate increases, according to a report from the American public radio website NPR. The scientists are now aware that this virus does not resemble relatively stable viruses like measles. Therefore, after several studies, they have pinpointed two main factors necessary to protect everyone worldwide from this terrible disease.
The American site consulted scientists and doctors to understand the future of the pandemic, which has infected and killed millions globally since it first appeared in China in 2019, its possible end, and whether it will return strongly next year or in the future.
Vaccines and Herd Immunity
The report suggests that there was some hope that humanity could completely eradicate the virus, but with its rapid spread across all continents and the increasing number of cases, this hope has shifted to the idea of local eradication, through achieving herd immunity and obtaining vaccinations. Biologist Jenny Lavine from Emory University in Georgia states, "It’s like saying if we can’t completely eliminate the new virus, perhaps we can achieve local eradication as we do with measles or polio."
However, achieving this for the new virus requires the virus to stabilize, with no changes in its genetic sequence over time, according to virologist Paul Bieniasz from Rockefeller University in New York. The problem is that viruses like influenza mutate very quickly, thus reducing the effectiveness of vaccines and leading to continuous infections, which necessitates changing the vaccines every year, as molecular biologist Catherine Kistler from the University of Washington in Seattle explains.
The report notes that at the beginning of the pandemic, it was thought that the new virus resembled measles more than influenza, but soon variants began to emerge, "and it seemed that it not only mutated but did so at a very rapid pace." Kistler refers to a study conducted by her and her colleagues at the University of Washington which indicates that the new virus has adapted significantly, currently at a rate four times higher than that of seasonal influenza.
No End to Evolution
The scientist does not expect the virus to stop evolving, saying, "It may slow down, but viruses that develop adaptively tend to continue doing so. They don’t tend to reach a finish line in evolution." Many scientists argue that this rapid development dispels hopes of eradicating COVID-19, similar to influenza, and that it is likely to be capable of reinfecting individuals repeatedly, returning year after year. Ultimately, "everyone will be exposed to it," according to Dr. Abrar Karan, an infectious disease specialist at Stanford University, who adds that "everyone will get it whether they are vaccinated or not."
However, Karan does not believe that the disease will remain terrifying forever, stating, "When you are fully vaccinated or have been exposed to the disease, you are dealing with a completely different illness and a totally different process."
A Mild Virus Resembling Influenza
Some scientists believe that it may eventually turn into a disease resembling other coronaviruses, specifically a mild illness similar to the flu. Lavine, now working at the biotechnology company Karius, points to a study she conducted on what the new virus could become in two, five, and even ten years from now. She argues that for the new virus to transform into a mild cold, two conditions must be met: First, continuous immune protection against severe symptoms through repeated infections or vaccinations. If the vaccine and/or natural exposure provides long-term immunity to everyone, over time the vast majority of the population will ultimately be protected from severe COVID-19 symptoms.
The second condition is that the virus must remain relatively mild in children. As long as they are infected as young children, they will develop immunity to the virus similar to adults. Therefore, theoretically, everyone around the world will ultimately be protected from this terrible disease. The accumulation of such immunity among all people may take a long time, perhaps years, thus the necessity for people to get vaccinated. The faster everyone is protected from severe symptoms, the quicker the virus can transition from being a cause of panic to a disease that fades into the background of our lives, according to the American report.
Global Statistics
The coronavirus has caused the deaths of at least 4,992,831 people worldwide since the World Health Organization's office in China reported the disease's emergence at the end of December 2019. More than 246,316,520 people have been confirmed infected with the virus since its appearance. The vast majority of those infected have recovered, although some have continued to experience symptoms for weeks or even months.
These figures are based on daily reports from health authorities in each country, excluding subsequent reviews by statistical agencies that indicate much higher death counts. The World Health Organization considers that taking into account the excess mortality rate directly or indirectly linked to COVID-19, the toll of the pandemic may be two to three times higher than the officially reported toll. A significant proportion of less severe or asymptomatic cases remain undiscovered despite increased testing in a large number of countries.
