With the impending Russian control of Mariupol, known for its strategic port on the Sea of Azov branching from the Black Sea, questions arise once again about the fate of the Ukrainian ports that have largely become non-operational and the impact this has on the supply chains of strategic food commodities. Ukraine and Russia are among the top five wheat-exporting countries in the world, collectively representing more than 30 percent of global wheat exports. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter with approximately 37.5 million tons, while Ukraine ranks fifth with about 18 million tons. Thus, global food security is on the brink of collapse, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
#### Ukrainian Production Stalls
Timur Duidar, an economic expert and business and investment consultant, stated to Sky News Arabia: "Due to the war, Ukraine is currently experiencing a severe shortage of fuel and energy, and mines are spread across many of its areas, particularly those involved in the conflict. Many ports, such as Mariupol and Berdyansk, are now under Russian control." He continued, "Although there are ports like Odessa, Izmail, and Yuzhny that are still partially operational, agricultural production is stalled, and harvesting and exporting the grown crops are equally hindered."
#### Soaring Prices
According to the economic expert, the significant drop in grain exports from Ukraine has led to a dramatic increase in the prices of strategic food commodities like wheat worldwide. He stated, "The price for a ton of wheat has reached over 400 US dollars, which is exorbitantly high, especially for poor and developing countries. Perhaps, to compensate for the shortfall in production and exports of grains, especially wheat from both Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Canada will try to compensate by increasing wheat production. However, the crisis remains severe and threatens people worldwide regarding their daily bread."
Academician and Ukrainian affairs expert Khalil Azima told Sky News Arabia: "The war on Ukraine has had a very significant impact on global food security as known, especially by blocking Ukrainian ports, particularly the main port in Mariupol and the port of Odessa. This war has negatively affected international trade and navigation in the Black Sea, where many vessels that were supposed to transport corn and other grains and food commodities to many countries are now stuck and their cargoes are at risk of spoilage due to the halt of maritime activities amidst the war."
#### Severe Impact on Poor Countries
Azima added that there will be “a severe food shortage, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, and there are also negative repercussions in Europe, but European countries ultimately have alternative sources. In Asia and Africa, for instance, the primary source for supplying many of their countries with basic materials like wheat is now almost completely obstructed Ukrainian ports. In fact, many countries in those regions have reached a critical state regarding the depletion of their reserve stock of essential goods like wheat.”
As for Ukraine, the speaker said, "The basic stock of grains is sufficient for two years, and the export of goods and food commodities has been halted to preserve the country’s threatened food security in light of the war. However, the greatest danger in this context will emerge next year amid forecasts indicating that a significant amount of fertile land will remain unplanted this year due to the war and its harsh conditions."
The expert on Ukrainian affairs concluded, "The hardest hit by the disruption of food supplies due to the Ukrainian war will be citizens in poor, low- to middle-income countries around the world, while wealthy nations will likely manage to secure alternatives and other sources to meet their needs amid the global food gap created by this war."
Global food prices reached "all-time highs" in March, as the Russian-Ukrainian war disrupted wheat, grain, and commodity exports, according to the FAO. The organization noted that its food price index rose by 12.6 percent between February and March, marking a giant leap to a new high since its inception in 1990. The FAO attributed the increase primarily to the grain price index, which "recorded a rise of 17.1 percent compared to February, driven by significant increases in wheat prices and all coarse grains, mainly due to the war in Ukraine." Additionally, food prices rose due to vegetable oils, with the index climbing by 23.2 percent, driven by rising prices of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is the largest exporter in the world.
