While the World Health Organization (WHO) pointed out that the COVID-19 pandemic "is not over yet," predicting the emergence of new variants of the virus, a scientific report indicated that the official death toll from the pandemic to date is "far less than reality," and that the number of people who have died from the pandemic is much higher than the recorded global figures. WHO's Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, stated on Tuesday during a press conference in Geneva: "Omicron continues to sweep across the world... Do not be mistaken, Omicron causes hospital admissions and results in deaths, and even less severe cases are straining healthcare systems." He added: "This pandemic is not over yet, and due to the widespread presence of Omicron around the world, the emergence of new variants is likely."
Ghebreyesus appeared cautious, reiterating that the Omicron variant remains dangerous. He told reporters, "In some countries, it seems that COVID cases have peaked, which offers hope that the worst of the recent wave is behind us, but no country has freed itself from the pandemic." "Omicron is less severe... but not trivial." However, Ghebreyesus warned that "more infections mean more hospitalizations, more deaths, and more people unable to work, including teachers and medical staff, along with greater risks of another variant that is more infectious and causes more deaths than Omicron." He explained: "Omicron may be less severe, but claims that it is a trivial illness are misleading (and) harm the overall response and lead to more loss of life."
While official statistics indicate that the COVID-19 death toll has reached 5.5 million people worldwide, a report from the scientific site Nature states that this figure is "far less than reality," as records of "additional deaths" — a measure comparing registered deaths to expected deaths — show that the number of people who died from the pandemic is much higher than reported figures. The site mentions that scientists have found "some official data in this regard to be flawed," with over 100 countries not collecting reliable statistics on actual deaths, or failing to publish them in a timely manner.
### Satellites Reveal the Truth
The site adds that techniques such as satellite imagery of cemeteries, survey studies, or computer models are being used by scientists to derive accurate global death estimates from the pandemic. According to the site, the WHO is preparing its first global estimate report, while the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, Washington, is providing daily updates on its results and forecasts regarding how quickly the global toll may rise. For its part, the British magazine Economist used models estimating 12 million to 22 million excess deaths, which is about two to four times the official toll.
All involved are aware that any answer they provide will be temporary and imprecise, according to the site, but they "feel it is important to try to understand the true scale and cost of the pandemic, hoping to confront the misleading claims raised by the official figures." Countries like the Netherlands, at the beginning of the pandemic, recorded only those who died in hospitals due to COVID-19 as COVID-related deaths, whereas Belgium included anyone who died after showing symptoms of the disease, even if the disease was not the direct cause of death.
### Actual Death Figures are Much Higher
For these reasons, researchers have begun calculating the increase in mortality over natural rates as a measure of the pandemic's toll, comparing deaths during the pandemic with the global average of deaths over the previous five years. Excess deaths include those not directly related to COVID-19, such as other infectious diseases, as well as indirectly related deaths, such as someone with cancer who died due to treatment being canceled because of the pandemic's effect on healthcare systems. For China, the model estimates nearly 750,000 deaths (more than 150 times the reported deaths in the country).
### Separate Death Estimates Due to the Pandemic
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent global health research center at the University of Washington, is preparing separate estimates of global deaths caused by the pandemic. The institute's model indicates that between 9 million and 18 million people have died so far due to the disease, and it attempts to predict how this number may increase and the speed at which it might grow. Through the WHO project, demographers and others are exploring ways to improve estimates of death numbers in countries that lack reliable national death data.
Researchers have shown that estimates can be derived, for example, from extrapolating from smaller regions within a country where data may be limited. Another method is to take a representative sample of households to estimate the annual number of deaths in countries that do not record accurate figures, such as Bangladesh. These models have already shown, in some cases, that the "true" death rate may exceed official COVID-19 death figures by several times.
