The war in Ukraine has affected food security in Lebanon, with a looming wheat crisis emerging as the country primarily relies on Ukraine for its wheat needs. It is anticipated that the existing wheat supply will last for no more than one month, prompting discussions with other countries to secure alternatives. The impact on sunflower oil will be less severe due to the availability of substitutes, though prices are rising due to increased demand.
Economy Minister Amin Salam formed a cell to manage the crisis caused by this war, stating that Lebanon's wheat reserves would last for a maximum of one month. He aims to establish import agreements with various countries amid market fears stemming from the Ukrainian crisis, as reported by Reuters. The wheat import issue exacerbates an ongoing crisis in Lebanon, which was intensified by the destruction of major wheat silos in the Beirut Port explosion in 2020. Since then, the country has lacked sufficient storage capacity for more than a month’s supplies, compounded by a financial crisis—specifically, the "dollar crisis" that led to significant increases in bread prices.
Salam pointed out that Lebanon imports about 60% of its wheat from Ukraine and is negotiating with other countries for imports, including the United States, India, France, and some other European countries, mentioning positive indicators and stating, “We do not want to create a state of panic.” He announced that the government seeks to reach agreements for wheat imports at suitable prices to secure supplies for up to two months, emphasizing the importance of obtaining commitments from certain countries and companies to purchase wheat at lower prices.
On the same day, Jreis Barbari, the Director General of Grains and Sugar Beet at the Ministry of Economy and Trade, told Reuters that Lebanon's wheat reserves should last between one and a half to two months, noting that two wheat shipments to Lebanon that were being loaded in Ukraine have been delayed due to the war. Ahmad Hattit, the president of the Wheat Importers Association in Lebanon, explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon imports 50,000 tons of wheat monthly and 600,000 tons annually. In 2021, it imported 520,000 tons, with 80% sourced from Ukraine and the remainder from Russia and Moldova. He cautioned that if the war continues for an extended period, it may become difficult to obtain wheat from all Black Sea countries, leaving the United States as the only option, which would increase costs significantly, thus impacting the price of bread in Lebanon. Hattit detailed that a wheat shipment from Ukraine takes about seven days to reach Lebanon, while a shipment from America would take at least 25 days, indicating that the current situation exacerbates the crisis from the destruction of the wheat silos and the dollar crisis, which have led to higher bread costs in Lebanon.
Despite wheat being significantly impacted, the war will also affect sunflower oil, as Lebanon imports 60% of its sunflower oil needs from Ukraine, according to Hani Al-Bahsali, the head of the Food Importers Association in Lebanon. He noted that the Lebanese market would experience shortages of oil, particularly as Ramadan approaches, increasing demand for it. He said, “The confusion has affected the global market, not just Lebanon, and thus will reflect on the availability of the product in the markets and increase its price due to higher demand for alternatives such as soybean oil and corn oil.” He also pointed out that the problem lies not only in importing oil but also in the ability to clear shipments that have already departed from Ukraine due to the inability to complete required administrative procedures.
Yesterday, the Millers' Association expressed concern about the war's impact on wheat imports, stating that “the war and events in Ukraine, the main source of wheat, have led to the cancellation of all wheat sales agreements due to force majeure, resulting in a price increase of $45 to $50 per ton of wheat.” The association expressed “concern about what is happening and its effect on the continued import of wheat from Ukraine, necessitating the search for new sources,” calling on “all relevant officials to request the Bank of Lebanon to transfer payments for imported wheat that has been loaded on ships currently at sea, today and immediately, especially since exporters are keen to transfer these shipments to other countries to benefit from the price difference due to the increase in wheat prices.”
