The New York Times revealed on Sunday US intelligence information indicating that 50% of Russian forces have transitioned to an offensive phase. The newspaper reported that intelligence informed President Joe Biden of reliable information regarding an imminent Russian military move, with the Biden administration expressing confidence in these intelligence reports and announcing that President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade.
The New York Times noted that the Kremlin has developed scenarios for a multi-stage war against Ukraine, and Biden's announcement about the impending Russian invasion aimed to expose and disrupt the Kremlin's plans. Prior to this, CBS News reported from a US intelligence source that orders have been issued to Russian field commanders to begin the invasion of Ukraine. CNN also reported from a US official stating that "intelligence assessment indicates that 75% of conventional Russian forces are in an offensive posture against Ukraine."
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry announced today that a large portion of the airspace over the Sea of Azov has been closed, attributing this to "Ukrainian troop buildups near the border." In this context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have intensified in recent days. Zelensky stated that Ukraine supports conducting peace talks within the framework of the trilateral contact group, which includes Kyiv, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, adding on Twitter: "We support intensifying peace efforts. We urge the urgent convening of the trilateral contact group and an immediate ceasefire."
Recently, tensions and fighting on the front line in eastern Ukraine have escalated, with both Moscow-backed separatists and Kyiv exchanging accusations of escalating the conflict. In this context, the Kremlin stated that "developments in Donbas could lead to irreversible consequences." Earlier, the "Joint Centre for Monitoring the Ceasefire in Donetsk People's Republic," which is aligned with the separatists, announced Sunday that "Ukrainian artillery hit new targets" in Donetsk "using 120mm shells." The center issued a statement reported by the Russian news agency Sputnik, noting: "12 rounds of 120mm caliber were fired at the Spartak area in the Donetsk Republic, followed by 8 rounds of 120mm caliber at the Donetsk State Chemical Products Plant." The statement emphasized that the artillery used by Ukraine "is considered prohibited under the Minsk agreements signed by all parties to the conflict in eastern Ukraine."
In response, the Ukrainian military announced that the country has suspended operations at one of the seven checkpoints in the eastern Donbas region controlled by separatists due to heavy shelling. The Ukrainian military reported that separatists fired three times at the Shastya checkpoint yesterday using mortar shells and heavy anti-tank launchers, while violations of the ceasefire by separatists increased to 136 from 66 on Friday. Two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and four injured yesterday in the area. The military stated that due to the "escalation of the situation and the inability to ensure the safety of civilians" using the checkpoint, the command has suspended its use starting today "during the threat period."
While this was happening, OSCE monitors reported that they recorded over 1500 violations of the ceasefire in the past 24 hours, the highest number this year. The monitors noted that from Thursday evening to Friday evening, 591 violations were recorded in Donetsk and 975 in the neighboring Luhansk, both partially controlled by Moscow-backed separatists. A map detailing these violations showed that fierce fighting is currently taking place in an area in the northwest of Luhansk, about 20 km southeast of the government-controlled city of Severodonetsk. A diplomatic source told Reuters that OSCE monitors recorded nearly 2000 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine on Saturday.
The intensity of shelling has heightened this week amid fears that Russia is preparing for an invasion of Ukraine in response to its rapprochement with the West. Ukrainian Interior Minister Denis Monastyrsky hurried to take cover Saturday when mortar shells struck hundreds of meters away while he was inspecting the front line during a tour with journalists.
In a related context, the Russia-backed separatists claimed on Saturday that they discovered "a plan devised by Kyiv to seize" territories under their control in eastern Ukraine by force and presented a man they claimed was a Ukrainian spy. In turn, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that these allegations are false. Concerns are growing in Kyiv and the West over the potential for a fabricated incident in eastern Ukraine that Russia might use as a pretext for launching an attack. Russia, which has amassed troops near Ukraine, has denied plans to invade and refused to discuss conducting false operations. However, it expressed concern about the situation, and separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine initiated a mass evacuation process on Friday, citing fears of a Ukrainian attack. Ukrainian authorities deny planning any kind of aggression and fear increasing attempts to create a pretext for a Russian invasion. President Volodymyr Zelensky also assured French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday evening that he would not "respond" to "Russian provocations" in eastern Ukraine, emphasizing his readiness for "dialogue" with Moscow.
